- The Commanders are a 4-point home favorite against the Falcons.
- The Falcons have lost each of their last nine games as underdogs following a home win.
- My Falcons vs. Commanders prediction is for Washington to cover the spread.
In charge of whether they capture an NFC South title, the Falcons travel to face the Commanders on Sunday Night Football.
Atlanta, thanks to two defensive scores, captured a convincing 34-7 win over the Giants in Week 16. Pair that with Tampa Bay’s loss in Dallas, and Atlanta now leads the division at 8-7.
Washington, in spite of five turnovers against Philadelphia, stormed back to capture a 36-33 win. That lifted the Commanders to 10-5, giving them a two-game cushion for the final playoff spot.
Bet on Commanders vs. Falcons and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 17 Odds: Commanders vs. Falcons
Commanders vs. Falcons Prediction
Based on Atlanta’s trouble stopping the run and Jayden Daniels’ strong record as a market favorite, my Commanders vs. Falcons prediction is the Commanders Spread (-4, -110).
Full disclosure: this game presents a tricky situation for me as I’m holding tickets on both Atlanta Under 9.5 Wins and Atlanta to Miss the Playoffs.
There’s part of me that wants to hedge against those positions, but I’m going to trust that Washington’s edge on the ground leads them to victory.
The Commanders rank fifth in rush EPA per play, first in rush success rate and seventh in rushing offense DVOA.
Conversely, Atlanta ranks 16th, 25th and 20th in the corresponding defensive metrics.
This season, Washington’s results are generally driven by their ability to run the ball.
The Commanders are 10-2 SU when they rush for 100 or more yards. Slightly worrisome, though, is that they’ve covered this number only four times in those 12 games.
Sample the three contests in which Washington rushed for under 100 yards, and bettors will find the Commanders are 0-3 SU.
That creates a sell-high spot on Atlanta, which has held three of its last four opponents under 100 rushing yards.
However, Atlanta played none of those games against a team 10th or better in rush offense DVOA.
History also likes this spot on Washington to both win outright and cover the spread.
Since 2003, conference favorites in games 10-16 are 51-9 SU and 45-15 ATS, assuming three factors:
- The underdog’s previous game margin falls between +4 and +32
- The underdog is on a two-game winning streak
- The favorite’s previous game margin falls between +2 and +16
When those teams play at home: 34-3 SU and 31-6 ATS. As a result, it’s Washington or nothing from an ATS standpoint on Sunday Night Football.
Betting Commanders vs. Falcons: NFL Public Betting
Check back on Friday for Commanders vs. Falcons public betting data and insights.
