- The Commanders are predicted to be -1.5-point favorites against the Giants.
- New York finished 2-0 SU against the Commanders last season.
- I predict the Giants will cover the spread on Sunday in D.C.
With both teams fresh off losses, the Giants and Commanders will meet on Sunday in their first divisional game of the season.
New York, as slight home dogs to Minnesota, received a 28-6 thumping in Week 1.
The Commanders, with new quarterback Jayden Daniels and head coach Dan Quinn, went to Tampa Bay and fell 37-20.
Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines and my Commanders vs. Giants prediction.
Commanders vs. Giants Odds
- Washington Commanders Moneyline: -125
- New York Giants Moneyline: +105
- Game Spread: Washington Commanders -1.5 (-115)
- Game Over/Under: 44 Points
Commanders vs. Giants Prediction
I predict the best bet for Commanders vs. Giants is the Giants Spread (+1.5, -110).
Two factors give me encouragement about New York in spite of their Week 1 loss: their strong offensive line and ability to rush the passer.
Per ESPN, the Giants ranked 10th and fourth, respectively, in pass block win rate and run block win rate.
Their defensive line also produced decent results, New York ranked eighth in pass rush win rate and 17th in run stop win rate, again per ESPN.
If the Giants can win at the point of attack against Washington, it gives me faith against a bad Commanders defense.
Washington ranked 32nd in Week 1 EPA per play and 31st in success rate allowed. Through the air, the Commanders allowed a 66.7% success rate, the second-worst mark in Week 1.
The Giants also match a number of historically profitable systems. Two stand out:
First, outdoor road dogs in games 2-7 against a favorite that missed the playoffs the previous year are 66% ATS, assuming two additional factors:
- The closing total is between 40 and 55
- The underdog’s previous game margin is between -24 and -1
Second, early road divisional dogs that see their line move are generally the right side.
Since 2003, road divisional dogs in games 1-4 that see their spread fall are 54-29-1 ATS (65.1%), assuming the favorite missed the playoffs the previous year.
Given the Giants have fallen from +2.5 at market open to +1.5, I’ll back them to cover in Week 2.
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