- Why the Titans are a top teaser option for Week 18.
- Three home underdogs that offer good teaser potential.
- The case for using the Arizona Cardinals in a two-team, six-point teaser.
Largely popular amongst recreational bettors, a teaser allows bettors to move multiple lines in their favor with varying payouts depending on the total legs.
NFL Betting Predictions: Best Week 18 Teaser Legs
Allow me to present my five best NFL Week 18 teaser legs in order of confidence.
Best NFL Week 18 Teaser Leg No. 1: Tennessee Titans +11.5
I already made my case for the Titans +5.5 in my Week 18 Picks & Predictions, so I love teasing them up through three key numbers.
Tennessee is a much better team at home and has stayed within this number in all true home games this season.
Conversely, Jacksonville has yet to produce a road win by more than 11 points.
Jacksonville did blow out Tennessee by 20 at home, but I still question their offensive viability with a banged-up Trevor Lawrence or backup C.J. Beathard.
Plus, in 21 games where he’s closed as a home underdog, Titans head coach Mike Vrabel is 17-4 against a six-point teaser.
Best NFL Week 18 Teaser Leg No. 2: Carolina Panthers +11.5
I’m less certain about Carolina as a straight bet than the Titans, but I trust them to put in a solid showing in front of home fans.
Carolina matches a similar betting to Tennessee: bad January home dogs off a loss. Such teams are 23-11 ATS, including 27-7 as a six-point teaser.
Most importantly, the Panthers have produced decent performances at home within the division. They only lost to the Saints by three and beat Atlanta outright.
Expand the sample to five divisional games this season, and bettors will find Carolina is 3-2 against this number, with both failures coming away from home.
Although Tampa Bay has two wins by 14 or more away from home this season, they struggled with the Panthers in their last head-to-head meeting, a three-point Tampa win.
As a result, I’m confident teasing the Panthers up through six, seven and 10 as home dogs.
Best NFL Week 18 Teaser Leg No. 3: Arizona Cardinals +9
The Cardinals are coming off a big win and have a chance for revenge against the Seahawks.
Seattle earned a 20-10 win in Seattle against the Cardinals, who played that game without Kyler Murray and James Conner.
Since returning both players in Week 10, Arizona ranks 13th in offensive EPA per play and 12th in offensive success rate. In Weeks 1-9, they were 29th in both.
That should allow their offensive to thrive against Seattle, who allowed 468 total yards and 202 rushing yards to the Steelers.
If Arizona can score effectively, I question how Seattle creates margin. Plus, they’ve earned only one road win by 10 or more points this season.
Best NFL Week 18 Teaser Leg No. 4: New York Giants +11.5
The Giants technically match the same system as the Titans and Panthers, but I worry about their teaser viability.
If not for an interception return for a touchdown against the Eagles two weeks ago, they would have failed to stay within this number.
That said, the Eagles are a mess right now.
They allowed 221 rushing yards to the Cardinals. A similar output against the Giants would allow Saquon Barkley to thrive and for New York to keep it respectable at home.
Plus, the Eagles haven’t earned a road win by more than 12 points since Week 3 against Tampa Bay. That remains one of only two wins by 14 or more this season.
Conversely, the Giants have lost only two home games by 12 or more this season: Dallas and Seattle.
I simultaneously trust their offense more with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, so I’m relatively sure they can stay within 11 points against Philadelphia.
Best NFL Week 18 Teaser Leg No. 5: Baltimore Ravens +9.5
Even if the Ravens rest key offensive players, do you really trust Pittsburgh to blow them out?
I backed the under in my Week 18 Picks & Predictions, which likely reduces the likelihood of a blowout.
Plus, Pittsburgh faces back-to-back road games. Even if they win the game, it feels like this contest stays within one score.
That’s proved true for the Steelers all season. Of their nine wins, only one has come by 10 or more points.
Head coach Mike Tomlin’s side is also 4-3 straight up away from home, with those four wins coming by an average of 6.25 points per game.
Accordingly, trust the Baltimore defense to keep this game close against a Steelers offense in a great sell-high spot.
What’s a Teaser Bet & How Do They Work?
In teaser betting, bettors select two or more markets in which they’d like to adjust the line. The most common adjustment is six points, though BetMGM allows players to move lines by any amount between six and 14 points.
However, bettors pay a premium to move the line through key numbers. In the NFL, these numbers are three, six, seven, 10, 14 and 17.
In a two-team, six-point teaser, bettors have to lay -130. In a three-team, six-point teaser, the price rises to +160.
Bettors can include as many legs as they want. But remember, all legs have to cash for the whole bet to win, making teasers with more teams inherently riskier.
With teasers, bettors should remember two things.
First, always tease through the key numbers. Second, never tease through zero.
My other recommendation is to focus on home teams. Some handicappers will utilize road teams in a teaser, but I’ve found visitors experience more volatile results.
Bettors should learn the BetMGM house rules associated with teasers pushing. If a leg pushes in a teaser with three or more legs, the leg is removed, and the odds are recalculated.
In a two-team teaser, if one leg pushes, the entire bet pushes and bettors are refunded their stake.
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