Cowboys vs Commanders Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 12

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(AP Photo/Nick Wass)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 20, 2024, 11:46 AM

The Commanders are -10.5 point favorites vs the Cowboys
Total (Over/Under): 45 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Dallas Cowboys (3-7-0) visit Northwest Stadium to take on the Washington Commanders (7-4-0) on Nov. 24. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Landover, MD.

The Commanders are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-105).

The Cowboys vs. Commanders Over/Under is 45 total points for the game.

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Cowboys vs. Commanders Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Cowboys	+10.5 -115	45 -110	+425
Commanders	-10.5 -105	45 -110	-600

Cowboys vs. Commanders Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Commanders will win this game with 82.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Cowboys vs Commanders Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Cowboys will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Cowboys players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cowboys Player Prop Bets Today

Dak Prescott has hit the Carries Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+5.80 Units / 31% ROI)
Rico Dowdle has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.30 Units / 33% ROI)
Jonathan Mingo has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.10 Units / 30% ROI)
Ezekiel Elliott has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 81% ROI)
Brandon Aubrey has hit the Field Goals Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+4.60 Units / 19% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Commanders players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Commanders Player Prop Best Bets Today

Austin Seibert has hit the Field Goals Over in his last 6 games (+6.15 Units / 85% ROI)
Austin Ekeler has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 82% ROI)
Jayden Daniels has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.15 Units / 59% ROI)
Brian Robinson has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+5.15 Units / 35% ROI)
Jayden Daniels has hit the Carries Under in his last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 90% ROI)

Cowboys Best Bets:

The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 away games (+4.85 Units / 34% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+4.35 Units / 19% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.25 Units / 21% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 away games (+3.35 Units / 30% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 8 away games (+1.70 Units / 19% ROI)

Commanders Best Bets:

The Washington Commanders have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.20 Units / 37% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.80 Units / 64% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+5.10 Units / 22% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+4.65 Units / 43% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.35 Units / 23% ROI)

Cowboys Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Cowboys art 2-8 (-6.7 Units / -62.04% ROI).

Cowboys are 3-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.5 Units / -41.67% ROI
Cowboys are 6-4 when betting the Over for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI
Cowboys are 4-6 when betting the Under for -2.6 Units / ROI

Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders are 7-3 (+3.75 Units / 30.61% ROI).

Commanders are 7-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.1 Units / 29.14% ROI
Commanders are 7-4 when betting the Over for +2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI
Commanders are 4-7 when betting the Under for -3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI

Dallas Cowboys: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders

The Cowboys are undefeated (6-0) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Cowboys are 7-2 (.778) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season — T-9th-best in NFL. The Commanders have allowed an average of 136.8 rushing yards per game since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL.

The Cowboys are winless (0-10) when trailing at the end of quarter 1 since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .313.

The Cowboys were undefeated (4-0) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Cowboys

The Commanders were winless (0-8) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .426.

The Commanders are 6-2 (.750) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — 9th-best in NFL. The Cowboys have turned the ball over 20 times this season — most in NFL.

The Commanders were 2-6 (.250) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Commanders were 2-8 (.200) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

Additional Matchup Notes for Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders

The Commanders have been successful on 47.7% of plays they have ran against a base front this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed their opponents to be successful on 47.1% of plays with a base front this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL.

The Commanders have run successful plays on 52.9% of rush attempts against a light front since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed successful plays on 52.9% of rush attempts with a light front since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Commanders have run successful plays on 45.5% of rush attempts since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed successful plays on 46.6% of rush attempts since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Cowboys have run successful plays on 38.7% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL. The Commanders have pressured opposing QBs on just 20.4% of passing plays since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Cowboys have thrown the ball 57.7% of the time since the 2023 season — 4th-highest in NFL. The Commanders have allowed 7.2 yards per dropback since the 2023 season — T-2nd-worst in NFL.

The Cowboys have averaged 0.08 epa per play in the first half since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Commanders have allowed 0.08 epa per play in the first half since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

Dallas Cowboys Offense: Important Stats

The Cowboys have committed 6 turnovers in the red zone this season — most in NFL.

The Cowboys have averaged -0.23 epa per play at home this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.

The Cowboys have scored 3.1 points per Red Zone drive this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 4.2.

The Cowboys have averaged -0.07 epa per play on first read passes this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.21.

Washington Commanders Offense: Important Stats

The Commanders threw the ball 57% of the time (267 Pass Attempts/465 plays) on 1st down last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Commanders targeted RBs 34% of the time (11 Pass Attempts/32 plays) in Week 11 — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The Commanders ran successful plays on 36% of plays on play action passes last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Commanders have scored on 55% of their drives this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

Dallas Cowboys Defense: Important Stats

The Cowboys defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 3% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Cowboys defense has allowed 12.8 yards after the catch (459 RAC / 36 receptions) to RBs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 8.4.

The Cowboys defense has allowed a passer rating of just 65.8 with a light front (165 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 84.6.

The Cowboys defense has allowed successful plays on 49% of pass attempts open coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 60%.

Washington Commanders Defense: Important Stats

The Commanders defense allowed 4.9 touchdowns per interception (39 TDs allowed, and 8 INT) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.8.

The Commanders defense allowed a passer rating of 109.4 with a base rush (547 Pass Attempts) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 89.4.

The Commanders defense allowed 0.16 epa per play in the 1st half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.00.

The Commanders defense allowed scores on 51% of opponent drives in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 29%.

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