- The Cowboys are a 7-point home underdog against the Texans.
- The Texans have lost each of their last 10 road games against NFC opponents.
- My Cowboys vs. Texans prediction is for Dallas to cover the spread.
It’s a Lone Star State showdown on Monday Night Football, with the Cowboys hosting the Texans.
Dallas, behind Cooper Rush, suffered an embarrassing loss at home to Philadelphia in Week 10. A 34-6 blowout loss dropped the Cowboys to 3-6, good for third in the NFC East.
Houston jumped out to an early advantage against Detroit, leading 23-7 at halftime. But 19 unanswered points from the Lions resigned the Texans to a second straight defeat.
Bet on Cowboys vs. Texans and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 11 Odds: Cowboys vs. Texans
Cowboys vs. Texans Prediction, MNF
Based on C.J. Stroud’s flawed ATS record as a market favorite and Dallas’ return to health on defense, my Cowboys vs. Texans prediction is the Cowboys Spread (+7.5, -110).
Look, I get this is gross. But remember, it’s likely that every parlay and teaser will culminate with Houston in a standalone spot.
I’ll take the other side against Stroud, who’s 5-10 ATS as a market favorite in his career. As a market favorite of -4 or higher: 2-4 ATS.
There’s no way to sugarcoat Dallas’ metrics. They’re 27th in total DVOA, 26th in offensive DVOA and 29th in defensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.
But the Cowboys have also played the third-hardest schedule up until this point, so the data shouldn’t be a surprise.
Plus, Micah Parsons and DaRon Bland returned in Week 11 to bolster an admittedly bad defense.
That can only help this unit improve against a Texans offense that really hasn’t looked consistently outstanding this season.
Rush has also posted strong ATS results against teams not named Philadelphia. Albeit in a limited sample, he’s 4-0 ATS as a dog against any team besides the Eagles.
Dallas also matches a pair of historically profitable systems in this spot.
Home dogs between +4 and +7.5 off a loss by 20 or more points are 61-36-2 ATS since 2003.
Additionally, home dogs between +4 and +9 against a previous underdog are 66-47-3 ATS since 2003, assuming the opponent has 4-8 days between games.
Finally, remember we’ve yet to see a team play the Lions and cover a spread the next week.
Since last year, teams are 5-14 ATS in the game after playing Detroit with eight or fewer days of preparation.
Cowboys vs. Texans: NFL Public Betting Trends
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | 82% | 69% | 48% | 53% |
| Cowboys | 18% | 31% | 52% | 47% |
Related Articles
NFL Betting Odds at BetMGM
BetMGM is the premier destination for NFL betting odds throughout the season.
Whether you’re a new bettor checking out weekly spreads, a casual fan tracking live NFL betting odds, or a longtime football building moneyline parlays, and more there’s something for everyone at the best online sportsbook.
If you’re new to the online sportsbook, register today with a sportsbook welcome bonus. And check out sportsbook promos each time you log in.
