Cowboys vs. Texans Prediction: NFL Week 11 Odds, Betting Picks

It’s a Lone Star State showdown on Monday Night Football, with the Cowboys hosting the Texans. 

Dallas, behind Cooper Rush, suffered an embarrassing loss at home to Philadelphia in Week 10. A 34-6 blowout loss dropped the Cowboys to 3-6, good for third in the NFC East. 

Houston jumped out to an early advantage against Detroit, leading 23-7 at halftime. But 19 unanswered points from the Lions resigned the Texans to a second straight defeat. 

Bet on Cowboys vs. Texans and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds. 

NFL Week 11 Odds: Cowboys vs. Texans

Cowboys vs. Texans Prediction, MNF

Based on C.J. Stroud’s flawed ATS record as a market favorite and Dallas’ return to health on defense, my Cowboys vs. Texans prediction is the Cowboys Spread (+7.5, -110). 

Look, I get this is gross. But remember, it’s likely that every parlay and teaser will culminate with Houston in a standalone spot. 

I’ll take the other side against Stroud, who’s 5-10 ATS as a market favorite in his career. As a market favorite of -4 or higher: 2-4 ATS. 

There’s no way to sugarcoat Dallas’ metrics. They’re 27th in total DVOA, 26th in offensive DVOA and 29th in defensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

But the Cowboys have also played the third-hardest schedule up until this point, so the data shouldn’t be a surprise. 

Plus, Micah Parsons and DaRon Bland returned in Week 11 to bolster an admittedly bad defense. 

That can only help this unit improve against a Texans offense that really hasn’t looked consistently outstanding this season. 

Rush has also posted strong ATS results against teams not named Philadelphia. Albeit in a limited sample, he’s 4-0 ATS as a dog against any team besides the Eagles. 

Dallas also matches a pair of historically profitable systems in this spot. 

Home dogs between +4 and +7.5 off a loss by 20 or more points are 61-36-2 ATS since 2003. 

Additionally, home dogs between +4 and +9 against a previous underdog are 66-47-3 ATS since 2003, assuming the opponent has 4-8 days between games. 

Finally, remember we’ve yet to see a team play the Lions and cover a spread the next week. 

Since last year, teams are 5-14 ATS in the game after playing Detroit with eight or fewer days of preparation. 

Cowboys vs. Texans: NFL Public Betting Trends

Check back on Friday for Cowboys vs. Texans public betting data and insights.