The offseason yields a huge volume of NFL futures markets to explore. And now that the NFL schedule release has come and gone, bettors finally have all the information they need to make big decisions on win totals, playoff odds, and more.
NFL Win Totals: Checking In on the Dallas Cowboys
With NFL win totals now posted at the BetMGM online sportsbook, I’m diving into analytics, roster moves, and individual team schedules to weigh dozens of bets in this summer’s NFL futures market.
Because of the widespread popularity of the Dallas Cowboys, I figured I’d start with them.
Cowboys Week 1 Odds: at New York Giants
The Cowboys swept the Giants in 2022 and have won four of their last five games against the Giants in New York. I think Dallas starts the season with a win.
Projected Record: 1-0
Cowboys Week 2 Odds: New York Jets
I did a quick write-up recently on some need-to-know Aaron Rodgers stats, and one of the things I highlighted is how he’s a mediocre road quarterback.
Rodgers and the Jets might have a higher ceiling in 2023, but in Week 2, I think the Cowboys’ great defense will have a big edge over the Jets’ new offense.
Projected Record: 2-0
Cowboys Week 3 Odds: at Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is projected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this year.
Projected Record: 3-0
Cowboys Week 4 Odds: New England Patriots
I don’t trust Mac Jones as a road quarterback against the Dallas defense.
Projected Record: 4-0
Cowboys Week 5 Odds: at San Francisco 49ers
This definitely has the look of the first Cowboys loss of the season.
Projected Record: 4-1
Cowboys Week 6 Odds: at Los Angeles Chargers
Back-to-back west coast trips probably end poorly for the Cowboys.
Projected Record: 4-2
Cowboys Week 8 Odds: Los Angeles Rams
You could frame this as a game where Dallas is fresh and coming off a bye; you could also frame it as a huge look-ahead spot, with Philadelphia on the horizon and a huge divisional showdown.
I think I know what Dallas is, while the Rams are a total mystery. The most likely result here is a Dallas win.
Projected Record: 5-2
Cowboys Week 9 Odds: at Philadelphia Eagles
The Cowboys probably have a better shot here than the market will give them credit for, but let’s write this down as a loss and circle back to it in a bit.
Projected Record: 5-3
Cowboys Week 10 Odds: New York Giants
Let’s make it six straight wins for Big D against the G-Men.
Projected Record: 6-3
Cowboys Week 11 Odds: at Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young should have quite a bit of seasoning at this point in the year, but I’m still not taking a rookie quarterback against the Dallas defense.
Projected Record: 7-3
Cowboys Week 12 Odds: Washington Commanders
This is a rivalry game on Thanksgiving, so absolutely anything could happen. High-variance game, and I’d probably take the points with Washington.
With that said, I’m writing this down as a win for exercise.
Projected Record: 8-3
Cowboys Week 13 Odds: Seattle Seahawks
This is the beginning of a very difficult stretch run for Dallas. I will give them this one, but the losses will come quickly over the final month of the season.
Projected Record: 9-3
Cowboys Week 14 Odds: Philadelphia Eagles
Let’s say Dallas leads early and blows the game.
Projected Record: 9-4
Cowboys Week 15 Odds: at Buffalo Bills
Texas team plays outdoors, in Buffalo, in December… Hmm. Sounds like a loss to me.
Projected Record: 9-5
Cowboys Week 16 Odds: at Miami Dolphins
Miami’s team speed keeps the Cowboys reeling.
Projected Record: 9-6.
Cowboys Week 17 Odds: Detroit Lions
It’s strength against strength, as Detroit’s powerful offense takes the field against Micah Parsons and the stingy Dallas defense.
I think Dallas comes into this game after a tough month of results and plays hard to get back in the win column.
Projected Record: 10-6.
Cowboys Week 18 Odds: at Washington Commanders
This is a total black box of Week 18 mystery. If every game breaks exactly how I’ve predicted so far, Dallas will have already covered over 9.5 wins.
If Dallas needs this game for the playoffs, I think they’ll play hard and get it. If they need this game for playoff positioning, I think it’s likely they get it, too.
But if Dallas enters the game without much to play for, it’s easy to see Washington taking this game – just as it did at the end of the 2022 season. Let’s call it a loss.
Projected Record: 10-7
Dallas Cowboys O/U 9.5 Wins: The Verdict
With an elite defense and an offense that still has plenty of playmakers, I’m a bit surprised that the Dallas win total is only set at 9.5 at the BetMGM online sportsbook. And remember – I had them swept by Philadelphia, and suffering a 1-4 end to the season!
To me, this is a clear over.
The more interesting NFL futures market for Dallas is the divisional odds for the NFC East. Dallas is +175 to win the division. There are two things to remember when considering the benefits of a Cowboys divisional future.
The first is the schedule. Dallas’ 2023 NFL schedule all but assures the Cowboys will jump out to a fast start. This is a backloaded 18 weeks, with many of the most challenging games coming at the end.
As Dallas takes early control of the division, it will become the in-season favorite to win the NFC East. Teams like Philadelphia and New York will be available for better costs in October and November. Hedge opportunities will be plentiful.
The second thing to remember? No team has won this division in back-to-back years since the Eagles’ run with Donovan McNabb from 2001-04. This division experiences huge year-to-year turnover, and it’s always wise to bet against the reigning champ.
Sign me up for some Dallas stock.
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