Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction: 2 Bets for Week 18 AFC East Contest

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Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws a pass during an NFL divisional round playoff football game Sunday, Jan. 22, 2023, in Orchard Park, NY.
(Matt Durisko/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Jan 04, 2024, 12:27 PM
  • The Bills are -3 against the Dolphins.
  • Buffalo can snatch the division title with a win against the Dolphins.
  • Miami has consistently won as favorites but have struggled as dogs.

Ahead of Week 18’s contest, I’m here to provide a pair of Dolphins vs. Bills predictions. 

This game will decide the winner of the AFC East. After holding the division lead for most of the season, the Dolphins will finish second if they lose this game. 

As for Buffalo, they’re still not guaranteed a playoff spot. If they lose this game, they need a Steelers non-win, a Jaguars non-win, or a tie in Colts vs. Texans to reach the playoffs. 

Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines for Sunday’s game, as well as my bets for the contest. 

Dolphins vs. Bills Betting Odds

  • Miami Dolphins Moneyline: +140
  • Buffalo Bills Moneyline: -165
  • Game Spread: Buffalo Bills -3
  • Game Total: 49.5 Points

Dolphins vs. Bills Predictions

Same-Game Parlay: Bills Moneyline & Total Under 49.5 Points (+220)

Jaylen Waddle is questionable, and both Bradley Chubb and Xavien Howard are out on Sunday. Plus, Raheem Mostert and Terron Armstead both didn’t practice on Wednesday. 

If all five of those players don’t suit up, I question how Miami earns a win against a Bills side that has won four straight. 

Plus, the Bills have proved outstanding as favorites. 

Although they’re 5-7 ATS as a favorite, they’re 9-3 straight up in those spots. As for Miami, they’re 1-2 straight up as underdogs this season. 

Regarding the total, this number has come down from 50.5 at open. 

The reverse meeting featured 68 points, but this Miami defense has come a long way since surrendering 48 points. 

Since Week 8 – when Jalen Ramsey returned to the lineup – the Dolphins are seventh in EPA per play and fifth in defensive success rate. 

Over that span, they’ve held the Chiefs and Cowboys both under 25 points. 

At the same time, don’t expect Miami to flourish if Waddle doesn’t play. Since adding Rasul Douglas, Buffalo’s pass defense has played outstanding (seventh in dropback EPA per play). 

Josh Allen Under 245.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Allen exploded for 320 yards against the Dolphins at home. However, he didn’t have Jalen Ramsey to contend with in that matchup. 

Even if the Dolphins operate without Xavien Howard, the Bills wide receivers not named Stefon Diggs haven’t exactly inspired confidence recently. 

Accordingly, Allen has finished under this number in four straight games. 

Since returning Ramsey, Miami ranks eighth in dropback success rate and 10th in dropback EPA per play. 

Plus, Allen has cleared this number in only three of seven road games this season, all of which were losses. 

If you expect the Bills to win like I do, there’s evidence supporting Allen staying under this number. In 10 wins this season, he’s cleared this number only four times. 

As a result, back the under on Allen’s passing yards.

NFL Same Game Parlays

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.