Dolphins vs. Raiders Prediction: 3 Bets for Sunday’s Week 11 Game

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Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (17) yells as he is introduced to the fans before an NFL football game against the New York Jets, Sunday, Jan. 8, 2023, in Miami Gardens, Fla.
(Doug Murray/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Nov 16, 2023, 3:43 PM
  • The Dolphins are -13.5 against the Raiders.
  • Miami had their bye last week after a defeat in Germany to Kansas City.
  • Las Vegas enters this game having won two straight contests.

Ahead of Sunday’s Week 11 contest, I’m here to provide a trio of Dolphins vs. Raiders predictions. 

The Dolphins had their bye week in Week 10. In their most recent contest, Miami fell 21-14 to the Chiefs in Germany, despite recording more yards. 

The loss dropped the Dolphins to 6-3 for the season. 

As for the Raiders, they’ve won two straight games following the firing of Josh McDaniels. However, this marks their first real test as those games came against the Giants and Jets. 

Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines for Sunday’s game, as well as my bets for the contest. 

Dolphins vs. Raiders Betting Odds

  • Miami Dolphins Moneyline: -900
  • Las Vegas Raiders Moneyline: +550
  • Game Spread: Miami Dolphins -13.5 (-110) 
  • Game Total: 46.5 Points

Dolphins vs. Raiders Predictions

Miami Dolphins Spread (-13.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders

I liked this a lot better at -11.5, but so long as you’re staying under -14 I lean to the Dolphins. 

The vibes are high in Vegas following Antonio Pierce’s 2-0 straight up and ATS start. 

But are we really going to upgrade this team based off wins against the Giants and Jets? 

Miami, who enters this game off a bye week, is a massive upgrade in talent over the two aforementioned sides. 

Plus, on Sunday night against the Jets, the Raiders posted a near -100 yardage differential. They also allowed Zach Wilson and the 30th-ranked pass offense DVOA side to throw for 257 yards. 

Now they face a rested Dolphins team fourth in that category. 

Miami is 4-0 straight up at home this season and has won all four games by at least two touchdowns. 

Las Vegas, meanwhile, has lost four straight away from home. In two games against teams with winning records, the Raiders own a -20 point differential per game. 

Sell high on the Raiders and back the Dolphins at what feels like a discounted number. 

Same-Game Parlay: Dolphins 1H Moneyline & Dolphins Team Total Over 30.5 (+115) 

In four home games this year, Miami is a perfect 4-0 straight up both for the game and the first half. 

They’ve also cleared this point total in all four games against teams averaging a defensive DVOA rating of 25. 

Now they get a Raiders team primed for a sell-high spot. 

The Raiders are 18th in defensive DVOA, but they’ve faced the ninth-easiest schedule of opposing offenses. 

In their hardest road game to date – at Buffalo in Week 2 – the Raiders allowed 38 points. 

With Miami coming off a bye week, bettors should expect them to fleece the Raiders and rack up a ton of points in the process. 

Aidan O’Connell Under 198.5 Passing Yards (-115) 

O’Connell didn’t sniff this number against the Jets and now faces a strong Dolphins pass defense. 

At first glance, Miami’s 17th-ranked pass defense DVOA unit doesn’t look outstanding. 

However, of the three games they’ve posted an above-average rating, two have come in their last two games. 

That’s likely due to the reintroduction of Jalen Ramsey to the defense, which has allowed only 190.3 passing yards per game in their last three contests. 

Given O’Connell’s only two clearances have come against the Giants and Chargers – 26th and 25th in pass defense DVOA, respectively – back the under against a superior opponent.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.