Falcons vs Eagles Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 2

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Eagles player number 1 running with NFL ball game in hand.

(AP Photo/Rich Schultz)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 12, 2024, 11:29 AM

The Eagles are -6.5 point favorites vs the Falcons
Total (Over/Under): 47 points
Watch this game on ESPN

The Atlanta Falcons (0-1-0) visit Lincoln Financial Field to take on the Philadelphia Eagles (1-0-0) on Sep. 16. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.

The Eagles are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-115).

The Falcons vs. Eagles Over/Under is 47 total points for the game.

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Falcons vs. Eagles Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Falcons	+6.5 -105	47 -110	+240
Eagles	-6.5 -115	47 -110	-300

Falcons vs. Eagles Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Eagles will win this game with 69.1% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Falcons vs Eagles Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Eagles will cover the spread with 65.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Falcons players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Falcons Player Prop Bets Today

Tyler Allgeier has hit the Longest Rush Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.00 Units / 35% ROI)

Bijan Robinson has hit the Longest Reception Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.70 Units / 54% ROI)

Kyle Pitts has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.55 Units / 43% ROI)

Rondale Moore has hit the Longest Reception Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.10 Units / 32% ROI)

Kirk Cousins has hit the TD Passes Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+5.60 Units / 45% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Eagles players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Eagles Player Prop Best Bets Today

Kenny Pickett has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.70 Units / 60% ROI)

Jahan Dotson has hit the Longest Reception Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+8.95 Units / 42% ROI)

Kenny Pickett has hit the Completions Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.80 Units / 65% ROI)

Kenny Pickett has hit the Interceptions Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 78% ROI)

Jalen Hurts has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+6.65 Units / 28% ROI)

Falcons Best Bets:

The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.15 Units / 56% ROI)

The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.65 Units / 26% ROI)

The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+2.15 Units / 10% ROI)

The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.60 Units / 24% ROI)

The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.00 Units / 16% ROI)

Eagles Best Bets:

The Philadelphia Eagles have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in their last 9 games at home (+9.05 Units / 80% ROI)

The Philadelphia Eagles have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.55 Units / 40% ROI)

The Philadelphia Eagles have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.20 Units / 33% ROI)

The Philadelphia Eagles have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.75 Units / 66% ROI)

The Philadelphia Eagles have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.80 Units / 53% ROI)

Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Falcons went 0-1 (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).

Falcons are 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.95 Units / -100% ROI
Falcons are 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
Falcons are 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / ROI

Eagles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Eagles went 1-0 (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).

Eagles are 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 80% ROI
Eagles are 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
Eagles are 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI

Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles

The Falcons were winless (0-3) vs top 10 run offenses last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .424.

The Falcons were 4-9 (.308) when committing 1 or more turnovers last season — 9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .406.

The Falcons were 2-1 (.667) vs top 10 defenses last season — T-5th-best in NFL; League Avg: .476.

The Falcons were 3-6 (.333) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes last season — T-9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .430.

Philadelphia Eagles: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons

The Eagles are undefeated (11-0) when tied at the end of quarter 1 since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Eagles are 12-6 (.667) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2022 season — T-9th-best in NFL. The Falcons have averaged just 1.9 sacks per game over that time span — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Eagles were undefeated (3-0) vs bottom 10 pass defenses last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .506.

The Eagles are undefeated (8-0) vs bottom 10 pass defenses since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

Additional Matchup Notes for Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles ran successful plays on just 36.2% of pass attempts against a heavy rush last season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Falcons pressured opposing QBs on 52.9% of pass attempts with a heavy rush last season — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Eagles have averaged 0.08 epa per play against a base rush since the 2022 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Falcons have allowed 0.06 epa per play with a base rush since the 2022 season — T-2nd-worst in NFL.

The Eagles have run successful plays on 69.2% of rush attempts on play action passes since the 2022 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Falcons have allowed successful plays on 61.5% of rush attempts on play action passes since the 2022 season — 5th-worst in NFL.

Falcons RBs had 0.4 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-2nd-best in NFL. The Eagles allowed an average of 24 PPG last season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats

The Falcons targeted WRs 39% of the time (209 Pass Attempts/530 plays) last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.

The Falcons committed 6 turnovers in the red zone last season — most in NFL.

The Falcons have targeted WRs 46% of the time (450 Pass Attempts/971 plays) since the 2022 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.

The Falcons ran successful plays on 28% of rush attempts against a light front last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

Philadelphia Eagles Offense: Important Stats

The Eagles ran successful plays on 59% of plays against a stacked front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Eagles ran successful plays on 61% of rush attempts against a stacked front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Eagles have averaged 0.27 epa per play against a stacked front since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.02.

The Eagles threw the ball 4% of the time (3 Pass Attempts/78 plays) on plays under center last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 26%.

Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats

The Falcons defense allowed successful plays on 32% of rush attempts with a stacked front last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Falcons defense allowed a Completion Pct of just 42% (14 completions/33 attempts) in close and late situations last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 61%.

Only 10% of the plays ran against the Falcons were in the red zone in the 2nd half last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

The Falcons defense allowed a passer rating of 143.5 with a stacked front (16 Pass Attempts) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 110.0.

Philadelphia Eagles Defense: Important Stats

The Eagles defense allowed 35 TD passes last season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Eagles defense allowed a passer rating of 51.3 with tight coverage (160 Pass Attempts) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 21.9.

The Eagles defense allowed 25 TD passes in the red zone last season — T-most in NFL.

The Eagles defense allowed 25 touchdown receptions in the red zone last season — T-most in NFL.

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