Falcons vs. Giants Prediction: NFL Week 16 Odds, Betting Picks

Nick Hennion Dec 22, 2024, 9:01 AM

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Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London (5) runs after a catch during an NFL football game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday, Oct. 22, 2023, in Tampa, Fla.

(Peter Joneleit/AP Photo)

The Falcons are a 8.5-point home favorite against the Giants.
The Giants have lost the first quarter in 10 consecutive December games.
My Falcons vs. Giants prediction depends on the Giants starting quarterback.

Seeking a continuation of their momentum from MNF, the Falcons return home to face the lowly Giants.

Atlanta captured a win and cover as road favorites against the Raiders on MNF, moving to 7-7. As it stands, Atlanta sits a game behind the Bucs for the NFC South lead.

New York suffered an embarrassing home loss against the Ravens in Week 15, failing to cover the spread as 16.5-point home underdogs. At 2-12, New York currently holds the top draft spot.

Bet on Falcons vs. Giants and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.

NFL Week 16 Odds: Falcons vs. Giants

Falcons vs. Giants Prediction

[Writer’s Note: This analysis was written prior to the Falcons announcing a change from Kirk Cousins to Michael Penix Jr. For me, the pick still depends on the Giants’ starting quarterback on Sunday].

Depending on the starting quarterback for the Giants, my Falcons vs. Giants prediction is the Giants Spread (+8.5, -110).

There’s zero chance I’ll take this market if Tim Boyle starts at quarterback for New York.

But the Giants placed Tommy DeVito in concussion protocol a week after Drew Lock injured his shoulder.

If Lock returns, I’m willing to close my eyes, watch zero seconds of this game and take the Giants to cover the spread.

Either way, history tells bettors that’s the preferred move in this spot.

Since 2003, underdogs off a loss by 20 or more points against a previous favorite between +5.5 and +10 are 63% ATS.

When those dogs fall between +9.5 and +10: 28-16-1 ATS, including 19-9 against an opponent off a win by at least two points.

The other clear argument for the Giants is that public support is 100% going to back Atlanta in a desperation spot.

All the moneyline parlays and teasers are sure to go on Atlanta. I’m also fairly sure bettors will back Atlanta to cover the spread.

But the Giants have shown they can play competitive football against teams coming off a Monday game.

Albeit with Daniel Jones, the Giants won outright as big road dogs in Seattle earlier this season.

That might be enough to keep New York close, especially when you factor in the small gap between these teams.

For the season, New York ranks 27th in DVOA against the 16th-hardest schedule, while Atlanta sits 20th against the 15th-hardest schedule.

Kirk Cousins has simultaneously struggled to cover big numbers in his career.

The Falcons signal-caller has recorded a 2-8-1 ATS record at -8.5 or higher in his career. As a result, it’s the Giants or nothing on Sunday in Atlanta.