- The Falcons are a 7.5-point home favorite against the Panthers.
- The Panthers have lost each of their last 11 road games against NFC opponents.
- My Falcons vs. Panthers prediction is for Carolina to cover the spread.
Needing a win and help to secure a playoff berth, the Falcons return home to face the Panthers.
Atlanta’s playoff hopes took a massive hit on Sunday night with a 30-24 overtime loss against the Commanders. Now, the Falcons need a win and a Buccaneers loss to reach the playoffs.
Carolina suffered a 48-14 road loss to Tampa Bay in Week 17, their fifth loss in their last six games. At home against Atlanta, Dave Canales’ side fell 38-20.
Bet on Falcons vs. Panthers and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 18 Odds: Falcons vs. Panthers
Falcons vs. Panthers Prediction
Based on the must-win tax applied to Atlanta and Carolina’s result in the last meeting, my Falcons vs. Panthers prediction is the Panthers Spread (+7.5, -105).
This game presents an interesting dilemma for bettors.
From a betting calculus standpoint, it’s a home run spot on the Panthers. All the moneyline parlays, teasers and ATS bets are likely to hit Atlanta.
That’s the reason to back the Panthers at a lofty number. Additionally, the Panthers match a historically profitable system in this spot.
Since 2003, divisional dogs off a loss by 21 or more points against a team with a winning percentage between 44% and 56% are 44-18 ATS, including 21-11 in December onward.
Just since 2021, those dogs are 13-3 ATS, including 7-3 in December and January.
That’s basically the case for backing Carolina, whose defense should struggle to contain Atlanta.
Atlanta ranks seventh in rush offense DVOA. Conversely, the Panthers rank 32nd in rush defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.
The last time these sides met, Atlanta rushed for 198 yards, their best output on the ground this season.
A slight case for optimism does exist with Carolina, though.
This season, Atlanta has played six games against teams 25th or worse in rush defense DVOA. They’re 4-2 SU in such contests and have covered this number only once.
Of course, that success came on the road against the Panthers.
But given Carolina’s recent offensive improvements and the fact they’ve covered four of their previous six games, it’s the Panthers or nothing on Sunday.
Betting Falcons vs. Panthers: NFL Public Betting
Check back on Friday for Falcons vs. Panthers public betting data and insights.
