- I predict Sam Darnold will majorly regress as the Seahawks quarterback.
- Why the Jets signing cornerback Brandon Stephens could prove a head-scratcher.
- The case for Washington overpaying defensive lineman Javon Kinlaw.
Continuing our reactions to the initial wave of NFL free agency, it’s now time to focus on the questionable moves.
Having broken down our underrated free agency signings, this section will focus on the signings that – whether because of player or contract – could prove poor decisions.
To help refine the field, I’ve evaluated only players who received deals with an average annual value north of $10 million.
Beneath that benchmark, I can make the case that players are worth a flier. However, these signings usually need to turn out well to justify the big contracts.
Let’s dive into the outlook and how these moves affect our view of the NFL odds.
NFL Free Agency Predictions: 3 Questionable Signings
Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks
The core question with Darnold is whether he can continue to hide the Seahawks’ deficiency along the offensive line like the exiting Geno Smith.
Seattle obviously got younger at the position with the change, a good thing if Darnold pans out at the $33.5 million per year rate they anticipate.
But when you pair Seattle’s bad offensive line with the departures of D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, it’s difficult to see Darnold succeeding.
Cooper Kupp does arrive to partner with Jaxson Smith-Njigba. However, my opinion is that this team went from a clear-cut 1-2-3 to featuring a pair of second-tier wide receivers.
Despite his success last year, Darnold fell behind Smith in both completion percentage and completion percentage over expected.
It’s also a massive gamble on a player coming off said strong season indoors with an offensive guru calling plays. The same can’t be said of Mike MacDonald in Seattle.
Pair that with the arrival of a new offensive coordinator and Seattle’s lucky metrics last year, and this is a team I’m considering fading from a win total standpoint.
Brandon Stephens, New York Jets
New York completing this move became a necessity after D.J. Reed left, but it’s a big gamble on a lackluster player for $10 million.
Stephens, who, it should be noted, plays a volatile position, struggled last year in Baltimore’s system.
Stephens finished last in PFF’s coverage grades amongst all Ravens corners last year, including fourth of four amongst corners with 200+ snaps.
Amongst all NFL corners with 200+ coverage snaps, Stephens finished 110th of 115th in PFF’s coverage grades and 109th of 135th in overall defensive grades.
That renders this decision by the Jets a total head-scratcher. If Stephens came in at a heavier discount, it’s more justifiable, but not at $10 million in value.
Still, I’m unsure how to approach the Jets from a win total standpoint, the only relevant futures market for this team.
Javon Kinlaw, Washington Commanders
This signing is more about the contract than the player, who alleviated some concerns about injuries by playing in every game for two straight years.
The issue with Kinlaw is that, even when healthy, he performed at a below-average rate.
In each of his first five seasons – two of which featured major injuries – he finished with a PFF defensive grade no better than 54.1. That came all the way back in his rookie year.
While there’s a case for optimism based on Kinlaw’s ability to pressure the quarterback, I’m not sure how he solves Washington’s biggest problem at a $15 million/year rate.
Last year marked the first time Kinlaw surpassed a PFF rush defense grade of 47. Last year, the Commanders ranked 26th in rush defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.
Even more concerning for the Commanders is that they take a step up in opponent strength after reaching the playoffs. That’s asking a lot of Kinlaw to live up to the contract.
As a result, my expectation is that we’ll look back on this contract not too fondly in a few years. It’s also a contributing factor why I’m considering fading the Commanders’ futures in 2025.
