- The Giants are a 15-point home underdog against the Ravens.
- The Ravens have won eight straight against NFC opponents on a losing streak.
- My Giants vs. Ravens prediction is for Baltimore to cover the spread.
Off a Week 14 bye following two losses in three games, the Ravens travel to MetLife Stadium to face the Giants.
Baltimore lost 24-19 to the Eagles before the bye, their second loss in three previous games. Currently, Baltimore is two games out of the AFC North lead.
The Giants lost but covered in a Week 14 home game against the Saints. That marks the eighth straight loss for the Giants, who have yet to win at home this season.
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NFL Week 15 Odds: Giants vs. Ravens
2024-12-15T18:00:00ZRavens at Giants
Giants vs. Ravens Prediction
Based on the Giants’ inability to pass the ball and Jackson’s strong record as a big favorite, my Giants vs. Ravens prediction is the Ravens Spread (-15, -110).
Full disclosure: I grabbed the Ravens at -13 earlier in the week. While I don’t love the fact the number has moved through some key numbers, it’s Baltimore or nothing.
I don’t see how the Giants stop the Ravens offense.
Baltimore leads the league in offensive DVOA. At 33.5%, the Ravens have as big a margin over second-place Buffalo as the Bills do over the ninth-placed Chiefs, per ftnfantasy.com.
The Giants also lost Dexter Lawrence for the season, so I’m unsure how New York will stop a potent Ravens ground game.
Although the Giants rank 15th in rush defense DVOA, this game marks only the second time all year the Giants play a team fifth or better in rush offense DVOA.
In the previous game, the Giants fell 28-3 at home to the Eagles.
Baltimore has covered this number only once this season, but New York isn’t well-equipped to exploit the Ravens defensive weakness.
Baltimore has let teams back into games due to a struggling pass defense, which ranks 16th in pass defense DVOA.
But the Giants are 28th in the corresponding offensive metric. Last week against New Orleans, Drew Lock finished as the worst quarterback by EPA + CPOE composite, per rbsdm.com.
The Giants will surely find a deficit against a Ravens side playing on extended rest, so I don’t see how Lock moves the ball and finds the backdoor.
Now some trends.
Jackson is 23-2 SU in his career against the NFC, including 13-0 at -6 or higher. In the former sample, Jackson’s average margin of victory is 10 points.
Also, non-conference favorites priced between -15.5 and -10.5 in game seven onward are 63% ATS since 2003, including 21-12-1 when they fall between -15.5 and -13.5.
Take Baltimore to cover a big number against a tanking Giants team.
Betting Giants vs. Ravens: NFL Public Betting
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