Jets vs Dolphins Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 14

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(AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 04, 2024, 2:05 PM

The Dolphins are -6.5 point favorites vs the Jets
Total (Over/Under): 45 points
Watch this game on CBS

The New York Jets (3-9-0) visit Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins (5-7-0) on Dec. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Miami Gardens, FL.

The Dolphins are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).

The Jets vs. Dolphins Over/Under is 45 total points for the game.

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Jets vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Jets	+6.5 -120	45 -110	+225
Dolphins	-6.5 -110	45 -110	-275

Jets vs. Dolphins Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Dolphins will win this game with 68.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Jets vs Dolphins Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Dolphins will cover the spread with 67.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Jets players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Jets Player Prop Bets Today

Aaron Rodgers has hit the Carries Under in his last 6 games (+6.45 Units / 92% ROI)
Aaron Rodgers has hit the TD Passes Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+6.30 Units / 55% ROI)
Breece Hall has hit the Carries Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.85 Units / 59% ROI)
Allen Lazard has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+5.10 Units / 45% ROI)
Anders Carlson has hit the Field Goals Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+5.10 Units / 41% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Dolphins Player Prop Best Bets Today

Odell Beckham Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.65 Units / 53% ROI)
Durham Smythe has hit the Receptions Over in his last 7 games (+7.55 Units / 81% ROI)
Braxton Berrios has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.75 Units / 62% ROI)
Jonnu Smith has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.35 Units / 33% ROI)
Tyreek Hill has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.25 Units / 32% ROI)

Jets Best Bets:

The New York Jets have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 away games (+2.85 Units / 26% ROI)
The New York Jets have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 away games (+1.60 Units / 14% ROI)
The New York Jets have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games (+1.35 Units / 6% ROI)
The New York Jets have scored first in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.10 Units / 20% ROI)
The New York Jets have scored last in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.05 Units / 20% ROI)

Dolphins Best Bets:

The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.30 Units / 23% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+1.30 Units / 11% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games at home (+0.85 Units / 5% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have covered the 3Q Spread in 5 of their last 10 games at home (+0.15 Units / 1% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 20 games (+0.10 Units / 0% ROI)

Jets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jets art 3-9 (-7 Units / -52.24% ROI).

Jets are 3-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.3 Units / -58.59% ROI
Jets are 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 3.79% ROI
Jets are 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / ROI

Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins are 5-7 (-2.9 Units / -21.4% ROI).

Dolphins are 5-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -4 Units / -19.14% ROI
Dolphins are 5-7 when betting the Over for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI
Dolphins are 7-5 when betting the Under for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI

New York Jets: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

The Jets are winless (0-9) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .429.

The Jets are winless (0-3) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .439.

The Jets were winless (0-6) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .421.

The Jets are winless (0-8) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .402.

Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Jets

The Dolphins were undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .574.

The Dolphins are 1-6 (.143) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — T-3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .402.

The Dolphins were 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.

The Dolphins are 6-6 (.500) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .275.

Additional Matchup Notes for New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins

Dolphins WRs have just 118.1 receiving yards per game this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Jets have averaged just 125.4 receiving yards per game allowed to WRs this season — 3rd-best in NFL.

Dolphins WRs have 6 receiving touchdowns this season — T-fewest in NFL. The Jets have allowed 9 receiving touchdowns this season — fewest in NFL.

The Dolphins are averaging just 4.1 yards per carry on rushes to the left side of the field this season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Jets have allowed just 4.0 yards per carry when defending on rushes to the left this season — T-2nd-best in NFL.

The Jets have run successful plays on just 41.4% of pass attempts against a base front since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Dolphins have pressured opposing QBs on 30.3% of pass attempts with a base front since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Jets have gone three and out on 35.8% of their drives in the first half this season — worst in NFL. The Dolphins have forced three and outs on 30.3% of opponent drives in the first half this season — T-5th-best in NFL.

The Jets have a third down conversion rate of just 31.1% against the blitz since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Dolphins defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 23.6% when blitzing since the 2023 season — best in NFL.

New York Jets Offense: Important Stats

The Jets ran successful plays on 29% of plays in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Jets had a third down conversion rate of 20% in the 1st half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Jets averaged -0.03 epa per play on first read passes last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.20.

The Jets averaged 11.8 drives per TD last season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.0.

Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats

The Dolphins have converted fourth downs on just 9 of 24 plays (38%) in short yardage situations since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 65%.

The Dolphins have faced a blitz 55 times this season — fewest in NFL.

The Dolphins had 19 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — most in NFL.

The Dolphins scored 8 TDs from their own territory last season — most in NFL.

New York Jets Defense: Important Stats

The Jets defense has allowed successful plays on 37% of plays since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Jets defense has allowed successful plays on 38% of pass attempts since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Jets defense has allowed successful plays on 38% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Jets defense has allowed successful plays on 37% of pass attempts from their own territory since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats

The Dolphins defense missed 25 tackles in Week 13 — most in NFL.

The Dolphins defense has not allowed a third down conversion with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 34%.

The Dolphins defense did not allow a successful play on any rush attempt in the 2nd half in Week 13 — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Dolphins defense have allowed -0.45 epa per play on contested throws this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.08.

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