Jets vs Patriots Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 18

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Patriots player number 38 running with NFL game ball in hand.
(Winslow Townson/AP Images)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 07, 2024, 9:37 AM
  • The Patriots are -2.5 point favorites vs the Jets
  • Total (Over/Under): 30.5 points
  • Watch the game on FOX

The New York Jets (5-10) visit Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots (5-10) on Jan. 7. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Foxborough, MA.

The Patriots are betting favorites in this Week 18 matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).

The Jets vs. Patriots Over/Under is 30.5 total points for the game.

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Jets vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Jets+2.5 -11030.5 -110+120
Patriots -2.5 -11030.5 -110-145

Jets vs. Patriots Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Patriots will win this Week 18 game with 56.1% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Jets vs Patriots Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Jets will cover the spread with 52.4% confidence.


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Best Jets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Jets players this Week 18 game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Breece Hall has hit the Longest Rush Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 86% ROI)
  • Corey Davis has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.90 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Zach Wilson has hit the Completions Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Breece Hall has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 88% ROI)
  • Garrett Wilson has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+5.90 Units / 48% ROI)

Best Patriots Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Mac Jones has hit the Completions Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.15 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Carries Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Mac Jones has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.75 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Mac Jones has hit the Interceptions Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.05 Units / 84% ROI)
  • The New York Jets have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.30 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The New York Jets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.05 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The New York Jets have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 away games (+2.75 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The New York Jets have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 11 away games (+0.35 Units / 2% ROI)
  • The New York Jets have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 17 games (+0.35 Units / 2% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.25 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.00 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have covered the 2Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.95 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 games at home (+1.80 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.50 Units / 16% ROI)

Jets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jets went 5-10 (-5.8 Units / -33.53% ROI).

  • Jets are 6-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.8 Units / -10.37% ROI
  • Jets are 7-9 when betting the Over for -2.9 Units / -16.48% ROI
  • Jets are 9-7 when betting the Under for +1.3 Units / ROI

Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots went 5-10 (-5.95 Units / -34% ROI).

  • Patriots are 4-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.05 Units / -27.45% ROI
  • Patriots are 7-9 when betting the Over for -2.9 Units / -16.48% ROI
  • Patriots are 9-7 when betting the Under for +1.3 Units / 7.39% ROI

New York Jets: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

The Jets are winless (0-6) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .422.

The Jets are 1-7 (.125) vs top 10 pass defenses this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .444.

The Jets are 1-8 (.111) vs top 10 defenses this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .469.

The Jets are undefeated (3-0) when rushing for 120 or more yards this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .670.

New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Jets

The Patriots are winless (0-5) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .378.

The Patriots are winless (0-4) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .368.

The Patriots are winless (0-7) when allowing 3 or more sacks this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .350.

The Patriots are winless (0-6) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .421.

Additional Matchup Notes for New York Jets vs. New England Patriots

The Patriots have run successful plays on just 40.3% of pass attempts this season — T-4th-worst in NFL. Jets have allowed successful plays on just 40.0% of pass attempts this season — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Patriots have run just 8.2% offensive plays in the red zone this season — worst in NFL. Jets has allowed their opponent to run just 12.4% of plays in the red zone this season — 4th-best in NFL.

The Patriots have gone three and out on 29.5% of their drives this season — 2nd-worst in NFL. Jets have forced three and outs on 26% of opponent drives this season — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Jets ran successful plays on 57.1% of rush attempts last week — T-2nd-best in NFL. Patriots allowed successful plays on 61.1% of rush attempts last week — worst in NFL.

The Jets have run successful plays on just 35.6% of rush attempts since the 2022 season — worst in NFL. Patriots have allowed successful plays on just 39.3% of rush attempts since the 2022 season — 4th-best in NFL.

The Jets have scored on 25.3% of their drives this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Patriots defense has allowed scores on 31.1% of opponent drives this season — 4th-best in NFL.

New York Jets Offense: Important Stats

The Jets have converted first downs on just 17 of 46 plays (37%) on 3rd and short this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 59%.

The Jets are averaging 11.6 drives per TD this season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.0.

The Jets have run successful plays on 28% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Jets have run successful plays on 29% of plays in the 1st quarter since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats

The Patriots have started 62 drives inside their own 20 yard line this season — most in NFL.

The Patriots have started 19 drives inside their own 20 yard line in the 4th quarter this season — most in NFL.

The Patriots have run 8% of their plays in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

The Patriots have gone three and out on 29% of their drives this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

New York Jets Defense: Important Stats

The Jets defense has allowed an average of 12.5 fantasy points per game as a unit to WRs this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 21.2.

The Jets defense has allowed just 106.5 receiving yards per game (3,516/33) to WRs since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 152.2.

Offenses facing the Jets targeted WRs 49% of the time (518 Pass Attempts/1,048 plays) since the 2022 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.

The Jets defense has allowed successful plays on 37% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats

The Patriots defense has allowed rushes of 10+ yards on just 28 of 411 carries (7%) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 11%.

36% of the plays run against the Patriots have been in the red zone in the 1st quarter since Week 14 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 13%.

21% of the plays run against the Patriots have been in the red zone in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 13%.

The Patriots defense has allowed 3 TDs on first drive of the game since the 2022 season — T-fewest in NFL.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.