NFL Best Bets: My 3 Top Plays For Week 13

Another Sunday is almost here, so it’s time to bet on NFL again.

As I do at the end of every week during the fall, I’m sharing three of my favorite NFL betting lines from the upcoming Week 13 games. Tail or fade at your leisure.

NFL Best Bets: Week 13 NFL Predictions

After I’ve handicapped the whole board each week, I will publish my three best plays from the wider canon of NFL odds.

I’ll provide a short explanation of why I like each bet, so you don’t have to go on faith alone.

If you prefer an audio version of this weekly article, you can always subscribe to The Lion’s Edge, my weekly handicapping podcast for BetMGM. More on that in a little bit. 

One rule to keep in mind: Any time there’s an underdog in the range of +3 to +7, I’m almost always sprinkling a quarter-unit moneyline play on top of the spread play. 

Once again, we went 2-1 last week, which runs this column’s season record to 20-14.

Browns at Texans (+7)

Every once in a while, I move off the marketplace principles that drive so much of my success as a handicapper and just bet the football side of things.

This is one of those times.

Deshaun Watson hasn’t played in a game that matters in nearly two years, so assuming the Browns’ offense will be magically and immediately awesome is quite the logical fallacy.

More importantly, Houston’s main offensive asset is Dameon Pierce and the ground game. Houston will find success playing that card on Sunday, as Cleveland is one of the worst teams in the entire NFL at defending the run. PFF ranks them 31st. 

And if you’re just absolutely dying for a market angle, then here’s one: a huge percentage of the marketwide ticket split is backing Cleveland, but the line hasn’t come anywhere near budging off seven. The book appears to be very comfortable with its current handle. 

That’s yet another clue that the Texans are the right side.

Play: Texans +7

Jaguars at Lions (pk)

The Jags came off their bye and beat a playoff team on a single, high-leverage play on a two-point conversion in the game’s final two minutes. 

Now, the football betting public – which spent a whole month hyping and betting the Jags after they beat the Chargers – is ready to get hurt again. Marketwide action has flown toward Jacksonville all week after Detroit opened as short favorites.

But Detroit has played really good football over the last month of the season, so I almost can’t believe I have to lay no advantage here for the Lions’ home game against Jacksonville. 

The Lions are clearly the better team right now, and they have a legitimate shot to go on a run and sneak into late playoff position. I think I’ve bet the Lions in four straight weeks, and I’m not going to stop until the book (or the market) starts pricing them out.

Play: Lions -110

Titans at Eagles (-4.5)

Like Cleveland, the Eagles are a sizable favorite that has real trouble defending the run right now.

That’s a pretty big problem when your Sunday opponent is the Tennessee Titans, whose entire identity is predicated on running the ball at unapologetically high rates.

I understand why Philadelphia has to be favored in this game, but I just think the Titans’ big matchup advantage means that Tennessee is likely to win this game straight up. 

I like Tennessee on the moneyline at +180, and I’m for sure taking the points in this matchup.

Play: Titans +4.5

NFL Parlay for Week 13

This week, I’m recommending a small two-way parlay on two underdogs that I feel are getting more points than they probably should.

• Broncos +8.5
• Bears +4.5

That ticket is currently available at the BetMGM online sportsbook at +264.

NFL Week 13 Predictions

Want to check out the full NFL Week 13 podcast? Don’t forget to subscribe to The Lion’s Edge for intelligent, weekly insights into trends and betting tips across the online sports betting world. It’s available on iTunes, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

You can also listen to it in the web player below.