NFL Best Bets: My 3 Top Plays For Week 17

Another Sunday is almost here, so it’s time to bet on NFL again.

As I do at the end of every week during the fall, I’m sharing three of my favorite NFL betting lines from the upcoming Week 17 games. Tail or fade at your leisure.

NFL Best Bets: Week 17 NFL Predictions

After I’ve handicapped the whole board each week, I will publish my three best plays from the wider canon of NFL odds.

I’ll provide a short explanation of why I like each bet, so you don’t have to go on faith alone.

If you prefer an audio version of this weekly article, you can always subscribe to The Lion’s Edge, my weekly handicapping podcast for BetMGM. More on that in a little bit. 

One rule to keep in mind: Any time there’s an underdog in the range of +3 to +7, I’m almost always sprinkling a quarter-unit moneyline play on top of the spread play. 

Browns at Commanders (-2)

This won’t be the first time this year I make a play behind leverage against Cleveland’s awful run game, but it might be the last. 

The Browns are likely (though not officially) on the wrong side of the playoff bubble, which means they need a road win against fellow playoff aspirant Washington. This is a big schematic problem for Cleveland since the Browns have the worst run defense in the NFL, and Washington loves to run the football.

Washington is perceived as damaged goods here because of its murky quarterback situation. However, the reality is that the Commanders are going to line up and run the ball 45 times this weekend, regardless of which flawed quarterback is on the field this week for Washington.

Play: Commanders -2

Bears at Lions (-6)

This is my favorite total of the week, as the Lions and Bears have both been mashing overs throughout the latter half of the season.

Chicago has become an over bettor’s wet dream, thanks to an improved scoring offense and a series of defensive selloffs at the trade deadline. The over is 8-1 in the Bears’ last nine games.

Detroit is averaging 33 points per game at home across its last three home games.

Given how potent these two teams’ NFL over/under records are, I’m not sure 52 is a high enough mark to prevent me from getting involved. The Lions are actually 4-0 to the over against totals that close between 50.5 and 53.5. The Bears are 2-0 to the over when the number closes north of 48.

Play: Bears/Lions Over 52

Bills at Bengals (+1.5)

This matchup is very reminiscent of the Week 6 game between Buffalo and Kansas City, when the Bills were priced as a very short road favorite. 

“You have to take the points with the Chiefs at home!” I recall everyone telling me.

However, no one stopped and asked why the Chiefs were a home dog in the first place or why the book was so comfortable taking a high volume of Chiefs tickets. 

As is often the case, the mere existence of a certain kind of number implies the game outcome. Cincinnati has won and covered seven straight games. There is, understandably, a majority of tickets marketwide behind the Bengals. So why aren’t they priced as the favorite?

Play: Bills -1.5

NFL Parlay for Week 17

I’m doing something a little different for this week’s moneyline parlay, mixing in some college numbers I like with the 49ers’ moneyline price.

• Florida State -375
• Georgia -275
• 49ers -500

Florida State plays on Thursday; Georgia plays on Saturday. San Francisco plays in the late afternoon window on Sunday. 

This is a three-team parlay that currently pays +107 at the BetMGM online sportsbook.

NFL Week 17 Predictions

Want to check out the full NFL Week 17 podcast? Don’t forget to subscribe to The Lion’s Edge for intelligent, weekly insights into trends and betting tips across the online sports betting world. It’s available on iTunes, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

You can also listen to it in the web player below.