NFL Best Bets: My 3 Top Plays For Week 8

Another Sunday is almost here, so it’s time to bet on NFL again.

As I do at the end of every week during the fall, I’m sharing three of my favorite NFL betting lines from the upcoming Week 8 games. Tail or fade at your leisure.

NFL Best Bets: Week 8 NFL Predictions

After I’ve handicapped the whole board each week, I will publish my three best plays from the wider canon of NFL odds.

I’ll provide a short explanation of why I like each bet, so you don’t have to go on faith alone.

If you prefer an audio version of this weekly article, you can always subscribe to The Lion’s Edge, my weekly handicapping podcast for BetMGM. More on that in a little bit. 

One rule to keep in mind: Any time there’s an underdog in the range of +3 to +7, I’m almost always sprinkling a quarter-unit moneyline play on top of the spread play. 

NFL picks in this column are now 12-9 this season.

Dolphins at Lions (+3.5)

The over is 4-2 in games involving the Lions so far this season, and I haven’t seen too many improvements from a crappy defense, either. 

Right away, I’m thinking about the over in this game. We know Miami can have success against this bad Detroit defense, but can the Lions hold up their end of the bargain?

The key is whether or not Detroit’s top offensive playmakers are healthy. 

Late in the week, D’Andre Swift was a full participant in practice with no injury designation. Amon-Ra St. Brown is still in concussion protocol, but from what I’ve read, he’s on track to play on Sunday.

That means the over is a definite play for me here, but there are other options for those who want to carve this game up with several bets. 

You can isolate the Dolphins’ team total if you want to take the Lions out of the equation; you can also hit a same-game NFL parlay with some play prop overs.

Play: Lions/Dolphins Over 51.5

Panthers at Falcons (-4)

The action on this game is a perfect example of how short our collective memory is regarding NFL odds.

Carolina has been a total wreck for most of the season. Last week, they finally got a moderately impressive win against the Bucs – who are now on a losing streak of their own, by the way – and thousands of people are ready to take the points in a divisional road game with the Panthers. This market-wide ticket split is essentially 50/50.

But Carolina is down to a backup quarterback, and its best offensive playmaker has been traded away. Its owner is an aggressive hedge fund manager who understands the season is lost and the team is in a teardown. 

The Panthers are incentivized to lose at this point to acquire Ohio State quarterback CJ Stroud.

This number opened around Falcons -6.5 and is now down to Falcons -4 at the BetMGM online sportsbook. The market movement has created a lot of value on the Atlanta side. Only one team actually wants to win this game, anyway.

Play: Falcons -4

49ers at Rams (+1.5)

San Francisco has won seven straight regular-season games against the Rams. 

Discounting last year’s NFC Championship game, the Rams haven’t beaten the 49ers since 2018.

Kyle Shanahan enjoys complete mastery over Sean McVay at this point. On top of that, they’re much healthier and just playing better football right now than the discombobulated, one-dimensional Rams.

I’m happy to lay a short number like this on the road.

Play: 49ers -1.5

NFL Parlay for Week 8

I’m taking a shot with a little two-way AFC home dog parlay this week.

• Texans +115
• Jets +120

That’s a quick, two-leg parlay that pays +373 at BetMGM right now. Definitely worth a flier.

NFL Week 8 Predictions

Want to check out the full NFL Week 8 podcast? Don’t forget to subscribe to The Lion’s Edge for intelligent, weekly insights into trends and betting tips across the online sports betting world. It’s available on iTunes, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

You can also listen to it in the web player below.