NFL Public Betting: Percentages & Money Splits

Below, bettors can find public betting data for the full slate of wild-card round games and various futures markets.

For clarity, public support is defined as when a side receives more than 51% of all tickets. In terms of the futures markets, it’s defined as the side that receives a plurality of tickets. 

Bettors can identify sharp support when a team receives more money compared to their ticket count. 

With that established, let’s get to this week’s data based on NFL betting lines. 

NFL Public Betting Percentages & Money: Wild Card Round

Based on public betting data for the wild-card round, public bettors are backing the Vikings (-2.5) to cover the spread against the Rams.

Support for Minnesota remained lopsided throughout the week, but it took a turn overnight on Friday. On Monday, the Vikings sat on 81% of bets placed to cover and sat on 76% of bets placed on Friday morning.

But as of Saturday morning, Minnesota’s share of the bets percentage fell to 66% from 76%.

That percentage ticked up slightly to 70% on Sunday morning, but the most drastic movement has come in Minnesota’s share of money wagered to cover the spread.

That share fell from from 90% last Monday to 89% on Friday morning to 75% on Saturday.

As of Sunday morning, the Vikings’ share of money wagered to cover has fallen further to 66%.

Now as we sit here on Monday morning, support for the Vikings remains relatively stable. Minnesota, currently, has received 71% of bets placed to cover the spread and 67% of money wagered to cover.

In terms of the moneyline, the Vikings are sitting on only 48% of bets placed to win outright compared to 55% of money wagered to capture a straight-up victory.

NFL Public Betting: Super Bowl 59 Futures

As of Dec. 31, the Detroit Lions (+400) are the public Super Bowl futures side at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

The Lions have received 15.1% of bets placed and 16.3% of money wagered. In terms of bets placed, that figure is down slightly from 16.3% of bets placed and 18.2% of all money wagered on Dec. 10.  

Here are a few other popular teams based on their current ticket percentage: 

• Kansas City Chiefs (+375): 12.7% of bets placed (+0.3% since Dec. 10)
• Baltimore Ravens (+700): 8.1% of bets placed (+0.3%)
• Buffalo Bills (+550): 7.9% of bets placed (+1.3%)
• Philadelphia Eagles (+700): 6.4% of bets placed (+0.4%)
• San Francisco 49ers (OTB): 5.1% of bets placed (-0.6%)
• Green Bay Packers (+1600): 4.5% of bets placed (+0.5%)
• Cincinnati Bengals (+15000): 4.2% of bets placed (+0.1%)
• All Other Teams: Less than 3.9% of bets placed

NFL Sharp Betting: Super Bowl 59 Futures

A few teams can be identified as sharply supported based on their handle percentages in the futures market. 

The Lions, for one, have received a higher money percentage than their ticket count. As a result, they’re the first sharp target. 

Three teams still live to win the Super Bowl have received a higher handle percentages compared to their bets percentage: Kansas City, Baltimore and Buffalo.

The Chiefs have received 15.2% of all money wagered in the Super Bowl 59 futures market compared to 12.7% of all bets placed.

The Ravens and Bills emerged as a sharp target later in the season.

As of Nov. 26, Baltimore received 8% of all bets placed compared to 10.3% of all money wagered. Meanwhile, Buffalo attracted 7.9% of all money wagered on only 5.9% of bets to win Super Bowl 59.

As of Dec. 31, the Ravens own a 8.1% share of bets and 10.9% share of money wagered. The Bills are currently sitting on a 7.9% share of bets placed and an 9.7% share of money wagered.

NFL Public Betting: AFC Championship

Largely, there’s a strong correlation between teams’ Super Bowl futures trends and their percentages to claim their respective conference. 

Beginning with the AFC, here are the top teams in terms of their bets percentages as of Dec. 31. 

• Kansas City Chiefs (+165): 19.5% of bets placed (+0.7% since Dec. 10)
• Baltimore Ravens (+325): 12% of bets placed (+0.3%)
• Buffalo Bills (+250): 10.8% of bets placed (+1.6%)
• Pittsburgh Steelers (+2200): 8.5% of bets placed (+0.3%)
• Cincinnati Bengals (+6600): 8.4% of bets placed (+0.1%)
• New York Jets (OTB): 8% of bets placed (-0.8%)
• Houston Texans (+2200): 6.7% of bets placed (-0.7%)
• All Other Teams Under 5.5% of bets placed

NFL Public Betting: NFC Championship

• Detroit Lions (+185): 32.9% of bets placed (-2.6% since Dec. 10)
• Philadelphia Eagles (+333): 12.5% of bets placed (+1.5%)
• Green Bay Packers (+750): 10.4% of bets placed (+1.1%)
• San Francisco 49ers (OTB): 7.8% of bets placed (-0.7%)
• All Other Teams Under 6.5% of bets placed

NFL Sharp Betting, Conference Championship

A new team has emerged as the sharp target in the AFC following Week 5: the Baltimore Ravens.

As of Dec. 31, Baltimore has received 12% of bets placed to win the conference. That puts them second to the Kansas City Chiefs in terms of bets placed.

However, the Ravens have amassed 40% of money wagered to win the conference. That’s by far the most money accumulated to win the AFC.

No other team has outperformed their bets percentage in terms of money wagered, rendering the Ravens the only sharp target.

In terms of the NFC, two teams have outperformed their bets percentage: Detroit and Philadelphia.

The Lions, which have amassed the most bets to win the NFC, are sitting on 39.1% of all money wagered to win the conference. Meanwhile, the Eagles attracted 13.4% of money wagered on 12.5% of bets placed following Week 17.