- The Packers are a 3.5-point home favorite against the Dolphins.
- The Dolphins have lost 10 straight road games against teams above .500.
- My Packers vs. Dolphins prediction focuses on the Packers team total.
To close the NFL Thanksgiving slate, the Packers host the Dolphins, with both teams looking to extend winning streaks.
Green Bay eased to a 38-10 win over the 49ers in Week 12, notching a second consecutive victory. This season, the Packers are 3-1 SU as home favorites.
Miami’s 34-15 win over the Patriots in Week 12 gave the Dolphins a third straight win and second in a row by double digits.
Bet on Packers vs. Dolphins and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 13 Odds: Packers vs. Dolphins
Packers vs. Dolphins Prediction
Based on Green Bay’s recent offensive strength and Miami’s weak record against good offenses, my Packers vs. Dolphins prediction is the Packers Over 25.5 Points (-120).
This rates out as a great sell-high spot on the Dolphins defense, which has played consecutive games against bottom-three offenses.
That trend is generally indicative of the Dolphins’ season thus far.
Although they rank 18th in defensive DVOA, it has come against the second-easiest set of opposing offenses, per ftnfantasy.com.
In fact, the Dolphins have played only three games against teams 10th or better in offensive DVOA. The results of those games: 31, 28 and 30 points allowed.
While I’m wary of Green Bay’s defense, their offense ranks third in offensive DVOA having faced the second-hardest schedule of opposing defenses.
Dating back to Week 6, Green Bay ranks sixth in offensive EPA per play and ninth in offensive success rate.
That represents a marked improvement over their first five games. In those contests, Green Bay ranked 15th and 29th in the corresponding metrics, per rbsdm.com.
Green Bay also carries a massive matchup edge over the Dolphins.
The Packers rank fourth in rush offensive DVOA and eighth in adjusted line yards. Defensively, Miami ranks 26th and 14th in the corresponding defensive metrics.
This season, Green Bay has played three teams 17th or worse in rush defense DVOA with Jordan Love.
Although Green Bay has cleared this number only once in those three contests, two of those performances rated out as their two best PFF offensive grades of the season.
Add in the short week travel for Miami, and I’ll trust the Packers offense against a bad defense.
Betting Packers vs. Dolphins: NFL Public Betting
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 30% | 49% | 51% | 44% |
| Packers | 70% | 51% | 49% | 56% |
