- The Packers are a 3-point home favorite against the Texans.
- The Texans have lost 11 straight October road games against NFC opponents.
- My prediction for Packers vs. Texans is a Stefon Diggs player prop.
Two teams on the ascendancy meet Sunday at Lambeau Field, with the Green Bay Packers hosting the Houston Texans.
Having won four of its last five games, the Packers currently sit at 4-2. Most recently, Green Bay captured a convincing 34-13 win over the Arizona Cardinals.
Houston is also on a run, with three consecutive wins over the Jaguars, Bills, and Patriots. Houston sits atop the AFC South at 5-1 with two games of breathing room.
Bet on Packers vs. Texans and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 7 Odds: Packers vs. Texans
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | +3 (-115) | 47.5 (-110) | +125 |
| Packers | -3 (-105) | 47.5 (-110) | -150 |
Packers vs. Texans Prediction
Based on the likely negative game script for Houston and his strength against zone coverage, my Packers vs. Texans prediction is Stefon Diggs Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-115).
Diggs has cleared this number in three straight games and will likely see an increased role with Nico Collins on injured reserve.
The key here is that Diggs has excelled against zone coverage, which the Packers play at an above-average rate.
Diggs has received a 21.7% target share against the scheme this season. That’s second to only Collins amongst Texans pass catchers.
In Week 7, Diggs gets a Packers defense that’s 27th in defensive success rate while in zone coverage.
Additionally, given Diggs’ tendency is to line up in the slot – he’s played 56% of snaps from that position – he avoids Green Bay’s top corner: Jaire Alexander.
Green Bay’s primary slot defender, Javon Bullard, is currently their weakest player in coverage. Per PFF, Bullard is last among all Green Bay corners and safeties in coverage.
Amongst all 138 corners and safeties with at least 233 snaps played, Bullard is 127th in coverage grades.
Green Bay’s pass defense in general, leaves so much to be desired as well.
While the Packers sit 11th in passing EPA per play, they’re 30th in passing success rate.
That tells me Green Bay’s trying to not let opponents burn them deep and that there will be ample opportunity for Diggs.
As a result, back him to clear this number for his fourth straight contest.
Packers vs. Texans: NFL Public Betting Trends
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | 41% | 30% | 74% | 75% |
| Packers | 59% | 70% | 26% | 25% |
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