- The Patriots are a 5-point home underdog against the Chargers.
- The Patriots have lost each of their last eight home games in December.
- My Patriots vs. Chargers prediction is for Los Angeles to cover the spread.
Looking to clinch a playoff spot, the Chargers travel to New England for a meeting with the Patriots.
The Chargers enter Saturday’s game on extended rest following a convincing win. On Thursday Night Football, Los Angeles won and covered in a 34-27 win over the Broncos.
New England played admirably as 14-point underdogs in Buffalo and entered halftime with the lead. The Patriots ultimately fell 24-21, but Jerod Mayo’s side covered the spread.
Bet on Patriots vs. Chargers and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 17 Odds: Patriots vs. Chargers
Patriots vs. Chargers Prediction
Based on the Chargers’ rest advantage and Justin Herbert’s strong record as a favorite, my Patriots vs. Chargers prediction is the Chargers Spread (-5, -110).
Herbert has excelled as a market favorite, particularly on both coasts. Sample games played in Pacific or Eastern time, and bettors will find Herbert is 24-13-1 ATS at -9 or shorter.
Just in the Eastern time zone, Herbert posted a 9-0 ATS record in his career, including a win and cover in New England last season.
Los Angeles has simultaneously excelled as market favorites in Jim Harbaugh’s debut campaign.
The Chargers are 9-2 ATS in such spots this season, including a perfect 3-0 ATS at -5 or higher.
While two of those three covers came at home, bettors should treat this game as a buy-low spot on the Chargers defense.
Los Angeles ranks 24th in defensive EPA per play and 20th in defensive success rate since Week 11.
However, that record shouldn’t come as a surprise. Over that span, the Chargers have played five of six against teams 15th or better in offensive DVOA.
There’s no doubt the Patriots offense has improved under Drake Maye.
However, Saturday’s contest represents Maye’s first start against a team 10th or better in pass defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.
Given the Chargers excel at establishing leads early – LA Is 10-5 ATS in the first half this year – a come-from-behind cover from New England appears unlikely.
Add in the rest edge for Los Angeles, and bettors should expect Herbert to continue his positive ATS run as a road favorite.
Betting Patriots vs. Chargers: NFL Public Betting
| Bets% (ATS) | Money% (ATS) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | 92% | 95% | 83% | 92% |
| Patriots | 8% | 5% | 17% | 8% |
