Raiders vs Buccaneers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 14

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(AP Photo/Peter Joneleit)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 04, 2024, 1:59 PM

The Buccaneers are -6.5 point favorites vs the Raiders
Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Las Vegas Raiders (2-10-0) visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6-0) on Dec. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Tampa, FL.

The Buccaneers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).

The Raiders vs. Buccaneers Over/Under is 46.5 total points for the game.

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Raiders vs. Buccaneers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Raiders	+6.5 -110	46.5 -110	+240
Buccaneers	-6.5 -110	46.5 -110	-300

Raiders vs. Buccaneers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Buccaneers will win this game with 61.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Raiders vs Buccaneers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Buccaneers will cover the spread with 59.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Raiders players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Raiders Player Prop Bets Today

Aidan O’Connell has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 79% ROI)
Jakobi Meyers has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.35 Units / 36% ROI)
Brock Bowers has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 58% ROI)
Gardner Minshew has hit the Interceptions Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.65 Units / 53% ROI)
Jakobi Meyers has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.60 Units / 25% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Buccaneers Player Prop Best Bets Today

Bucky Irving has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.50 Units / 52% ROI)
Baker Mayfield has hit the TD Passes Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+7.50 Units / 36% ROI)
Baker Mayfield has hit the Completions Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.85 Units / 66% ROI)
Bucky Irving has hit the Receptions Over in his last 6 games (+6.15 Units / 81% ROI)
Rachaad White has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+6.00 Units / 63% ROI)

Raiders Best Bets:

The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.80 Units / 34% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.95 Units / 48% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 10 away games (+4.70 Units / 38% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.40 Units / 21% ROI)

Buccaneers Best Bets:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 1Q Spread in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.40 Units / 27% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 games (+6.20 Units / 20% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.15 Units / 24% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+5.50 Units / 27% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 22 games (+5.45 Units / 19% ROI)

Raiders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Raiders art 5-7 (-2.85 Units / -21.27% ROI).

Raiders are 2-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.6 Units / -48.89% ROI
Raiders are 8-4 when betting the Over for +3.6 Units / 27.27% ROI
Raiders are 4-8 when betting the Under for -4.8 Units / ROI

Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers are 7-5 (+1.5 Units / 11.32% ROI).

Buccaneers are 6-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.45 Units / 2.36% ROI
Buccaneers are 8-4 when betting the Over for +3.6 Units / 27.27% ROI
Buccaneers are 4-8 when betting the Under for -4.8 Units / -36.36% ROI

Las Vegas Raiders: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Raiders are winless (0-8) when tied at the end of quarter 1 since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Raiders are winless (0-7) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .414.

The Raiders are winless (0-6) when throwing 2 or more interceptions since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .199.

The Raiders are 1-13 (.071) when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .374.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders

The Buccaneers are undefeated (5-0) vs bottom 10 offenses since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .658.

The Buccaneers are winless (0-4) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .416.

The Buccaneers were winless (0-7) when rushing less than 25 times last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .276.

The Buccaneers were 8-2 (.800) when not losing a fumble last season — T-5th-best in NFL; League Avg: .578.

Additional Matchup Notes for Las Vegas Raiders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers have scored on 44.1% of their drives in the first quarter this season — T-3rd-best in NFL. The Raiders defense has allowed scores on 40.7% of opponent drives in the first quarter this season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers have scored on 48.5% of their drives in the first half this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Raiders defense has allowed scores on 50% of opponent drives in the first half this season — 5th-worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 54.7% of pass attempts with motion this season — T-2nd-best in NFL. The Raiders have allowed successful plays on 53.6% of pass attempts against motion this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL.

The Raiders have run successful plays on just 36.9% of rush attempts with motion since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed successful plays on just 37.2% of rush attempts against motion since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL.

Raiders RBs have rushed for 10 or more yards on just 6.5% of 215 carries this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed 10+ yards on just 6.7% of carries to RBs this season — 3rd-best in NFL.

Raiders TEs have 84.9 receiving yards per game this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed an average of66.7 receiving yards per game to TEs this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

Las Vegas Raiders Offense: Important Stats

The Raiders have run successful plays on 18% of rush attempts against a light front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Raiders have run successful plays on 32% of rush attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Raiders have averaged -0.97 epa per play against a light rush this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.02.

The Raiders have 49 of 201 (24%) first downs have come on the ground (24%) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: Important Stats

The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 50% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 31%.

The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 73% of pass attempts against a stacked front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 32% of rush attempts against a base front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Buccaneers have thrown for 25 TDs this season — 3rd-most in NFL.

Las Vegas Raiders Defense: Important Stats

The Raiders defense has allowed 9 TD passes when the opposing QB has scrambled since the 2023 season — most in NFL.

27% of the plays run against the Raiders have been in the red zone in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The Raiders defense has allowed 5 TD passes when the opposing QB has scrambled this season — most in NFL.

The Raiders defense has allowed a passer rating of just 42.1 on contested throws (116 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 67.2.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense: Important Stats

The Buccaneers defense allowed a passer rating of just 25.3 with a stacked front (16 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 110.0.

The Buccaneers defense blitzed 23 times in Week 13 — most in NFL.

The Buccaneers defense blitzed on 34% of plays in Week 13 — highest in NFL; League Avg: 13%.

The Buccaneers defense allowed successful plays on 75% of rush attempts with a base rush last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 57%.

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