Saints vs Giants Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 14

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Giants player number 8 holding a NFL game ball.

(AP Photo/Michael Ainsworth)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 04, 2024, 2:06 PM

The Saints are -5 point favorites vs the Giants
Total (Over/Under): 41 points
Watch this game on FOX

The New Orleans Saints (4-8-0) visit MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Giants (2-10-0) on Dec. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in East Rutherford, NJ.

The Saints are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -5 (-110).

The Saints vs. Giants Over/Under is 41 total points for the game.

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Saints vs. Giants Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Saints	-5 -110	41 -110	-225
Giants	+5 -110	41 -110	+185

Saints vs. Giants Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Saints will win this game with 68.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Saints vs Giants Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Saints will cover the spread with 67.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Saints players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Saints Player Prop Bets Today

Derek Carr has hit the TD Passes Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+10.30 Units / 72% ROI)
Derek Carr has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.30 Units / 32% ROI)
Juwan Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.20 Units / 28% ROI)
Foster Moreau has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.30 Units / 28% ROI)
Chris Olave has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 12 games (+3.75 Units / 25% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Giants players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Giants Player Prop Best Bets Today

Theo Johnson has hit the Receptions Over in his last 7 games (+7.50 Units / 92% ROI)
Theo Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 88% ROI)
Darius Slayton has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.20 Units / 28% ROI)
Devin Singletary has hit the Longest Rush Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 60% ROI)
Malik Nabers has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.80 Units / 49% ROI)

Saints Best Bets:

The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+6.75 Units / 25% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.45 Units / 23% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 20 games (+3.80 Units / 15% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have scored last in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 49% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+2.80 Units / 12% ROI)

Giants Best Bets:

The New York Giants have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.25 Units / 22% ROI)
The New York Giants have hit the 2H Moneyline in 3 of their last 8 games at home (+1.75 Units / 22% ROI)
The New York Giants have covered the 2H Spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.65 Units / 18% ROI)
The New York Giants have scored last in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.35 Units / 27% ROI)
The New York Giants have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 17 games (+0.92 Units / 5% ROI)

Saints Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Saints art 5-7 (-2.7 Units / -20.61% ROI).

Saints are 4-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.75 Units / -30.35% ROI
Saints are 7-5 when betting the Over for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI
Saints are 5-7 when betting the Under for -2.7 Units / ROI

Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Giants are 3-9 (-6.8 Units / -51.91% ROI).

Giants are 2-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -7 Units / -50% ROI
Giants are 4-8 when betting the Over for -4.85 Units / -36.6% ROI
Giants are 8-4 when betting the Under for +3.6 Units / 27.38% ROI

New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Giants

The Saints were winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.

The Saints are winless (0-4) whe trailing at the end of the frist half this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .273.

The Saints are 1-7 (.125) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .444.

The Saints are winless (0-5) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .402.

New York Giants: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints

The Giants are 2-13 (.133) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Saints have intercepted 30 passes since the 2023 season — T-4th-most in NFL.

The Giants were 3-6 (.333) when forcing 2 or more turnovers last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .707.

The Giants are 1-9 (.100) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .368.

The Giants are winless (0-6) at home this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

Additional Matchup Notes for New Orleans Saints vs. New York Giants

The Giants have run just 40.7% offensive plays on their opponent’s side of the field since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Saints have allowed their opponents to run just 42.9% of plays in their territory since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL.

The Giants have a third down conversion rate of just 32.9% since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Saints defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 35.4% since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Giants have averaged just -0.19 epa per play against a light front since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Saints have allowed just -0.13 epa per play with a light front since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Saints have run successful plays on 61.9% of pass attempts against a heavy rush this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Giants have allowed successful plays on 61.5% of pass attempts with a heavy rush this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

New Orleans Saints Offense: Important Stats

The Saints averaged 0.26 epa per play on contested throws last season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.12.

The Saints have targeted RBs 25% of the time (96 Pass Attempts/380 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The Saints have averaged 0.26 epa per play against open coverage this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.40.

The Saints averaged -0.32 epa per play against a light rush last season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.

New York Giants Offense: Important Stats

The Giants have averaged -0.35 epa per play on play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.09.

The Giants have committed 6 turnovers in the red zone this season — T-most in NFL.

The Giants averaged -0.26 epa per play against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.

The Giants ran successful plays on 26% of pass attempts against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

New Orleans Saints Defense: Important Stats

The Saints defense has allowed first downs on 29% of pass attempts on 3rd and short since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 56%.

The Saints defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 41% on 3rd and short last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 59%.

The Saints defense allowed successful plays on 70% of rush attempts in Week 13 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Saints defense has allowed a passer rating of just 35.0 on contested throws (50 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 71.9.

New York Giants Defense: Important Stats

The Giants defense allowed 6.8 yards per dropback (1,053 yards/156 attempts) when targeted at a depth of 1-5 yards last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.

The Giants defense has allowed 21.2 yards per dropback (616 yards/29 attempts) when targeted at a depth of 20+ yards this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 12.0.

Offenses facing the Giants targeted TEs 15% of the time (52 Pass Attempts/341 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

The Giants defense has allowed 3.2 yards after the catch (142 RAC / 44 receptions) to TEs this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 4.9.

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