Bills Super Bowl Prediction: Odds Breakdown for Buffalo

As of Jan. 15, the Bills Super Bowl odds are +500, with an implied probability of 16.7%. Prior to the 2024 NFL season, Buffalo was +900 to raise the Vince Lombardi Trophy. 

They also possess +225 odds – an implied probability of 30.8% – to win the AFC Championship at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Prior to their wild-card round win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo sat at +650 to win the Super Bowl and +280 to win the AFC Championship.

In terms of the Super Bowl futures market, the Bills received a lot of attention from bettors. Although they received only 7.6% of all tickets, they finished with the second-most money at 10.2% of the handle. 

Super Bowl 58 Betting Prediction

At +280, I’m betting the Bills to win the AFC. 

Full disclosure, it’s my opinion the Ravens are the best team in the conference. However, their odds are way too short to justify a bet – +325 Super Bowl, +125 AFC winners. 

That leads me to the Bills, whose lone kryptonite appears to be Josh Allen’s penchant for turning the ball over. 

However, he’s shown himself to be capable of limiting bad decisions come playoff time. In eight postseason starts, he’s thrown only four interceptions. 

The Bills also received a very favorable draw in the conference. They get a T.J. Watt-less Steelers in the wild-card round, then presumably draw the Chiefs in the divisional round. 

Crazier things have happened, but maybe the Browns or Texans can upset the Ravens in the second round. 

If that happens, it opens the door for Buffalo to reach Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas. This season, Buffalo is 7-1 straight up in true home games. 

Plus, Allen is 14-6 straight up at home for his career against opponents with a winning record. 

Lastly, there’s something to be said about Buffalo’s form entering the playoffs. 

All of the previous three AFC Super Bowl representatives – Kansas City twice and Cincinnati – won a minimum of three straight behind their starting quarterbacks entering the playoffs. 

Given the Bills have earned wins in five straight, I’ll back them at solid odds to claim the conference.