Chiefs Super Bowl Prediction: Odds Breakdown for Kansas City

min read
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes looks to pass against the Buffalo Bills during the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 10, 2023 in Kansas City, Mo.
(Reed Hoffmann/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Jan 25, 2024, 9:33 PM
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have +350 Super Bowl odds.
  • At 11-6, inconsistency plagued the Chiefs, who reached the Super Bowl last season.
  • If Kansas City hopes to reach a second straight big game, the run defense has to improve.

As of Jan. 22, the Chiefs Super Bowl odds are +350, with an implied probability of 22.2%. Prior to the NFL season, Kansas City was +600 to raise the Vince Lombardi Trophy. 

They also possess effective +145 odds – their moneyline against the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship, an implied probability of 40.8% – to win the AFC Championship at the BetMGM online sportsbook

Before their home win against the Miami Dolphins in the wild-card round, oddsmakers priced the Chiefs at +900 and +450 to win the Super Bowl and AFC Championship, respectively.

In terms of the Super Bowl futures market, the Chiefs proved a very popular pick amongst bettors. 

At 8.0% of all bets and 8.5% of the total handle, Kansas City ranked fourth and third, respectively, in those two categories. 

Super Bowl 58 Betting Prediction

There’s decent upside in taking a team that has reached a Super Bowl in two of the last three years. However, for my AFC futures angle, check out my Bills Super Bowl Prediction

There’s not much wrong with this Chiefs team, especially when you factor in their defensive improvement. 

Last season, the Chiefs finished 14th in defensive DVOA – 14th against the pass, 15th against the run. 

This season, they ranked seventh in defensive DVOA, including fifth against the pass, per ftnfantasy.com. 

The one glaring issue with the Chiefs? They’re virtually incapable of stopping the run, ranking 27th in rush defense DVOA. 

That’s going to hurt them come matchups with the Bills and Ravens, both of whom rank seventh or better in the corresponding offensive category. 

Plus, we’ve seen this season that Patrick Mahomes’ wide receivers aren’t very trustworthy. 

That problem is going to be on full display against the Bills, assuming seeds hold and the two teams meet for another playoff matchup. 

Since acquiring Rasul Douglas, Buffalo ranks sixth in dropback EPA per play. 

Given the Chiefs don’t really like to run the ball – Kansas City ranked 27th in rushing play percentage – I question how they get past the matchup. 

As a result, there aren’t many angles for me to get involved with Kansas City, as it requires losses by both Baltimore and Buffalo to have any viability.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

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Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.