Buccaneers Super Bowl Prediction: Odds Breakdown for Tampa Bay

min read
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield passes against the Minnesota Vikings during the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023, in Minneapolis.
(Bruce Kluckhohn/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Jan 16, 2024, 1:29 PM
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have +2800 Super Bowl odds.
  • Tampa Bay finished the season with luck on their side and reached playoffs thanks to weak schedule.
  • In three games against teams third in better in conference, the Bucs finished 0-3.

As of Jan. 15, the Buccaneers Super Bowl odds are +2800, with an implied probability of 3.4%. Prior to the 2024 NFL season, Tampa Bay was +8000 to raise the Vince Lombardi Trophy. 

They also possess +900 odds – an implied probability of 10% – to win the NFC Championship at the BetMGM online sportsbook

Before their wild-card round victory over the Philadelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay sat at +6600 to win Super Bowl 58 and +3300 to win the NFC Championship.

In terms of the Super Bowl futures market, not many bettors expected a lot from the Bucs this year. Tampa Bay received only 0.6% of all bets and 0.3% of the total handle to win Super Bowl 58. 

Super Bowl 58 Betting Prediction

The Buccaneers offer no viability in the futures market simply because they’ve struggled in difficult games. For my favorite NFC futures angle, check out my 49ers Super Bowl Prediction

Luck was on Tampa Bay’s side this season, as they finished 9-8. 

However, per ftnfantasy.com, their expected wins came in at 7.5, the 20th-best mark in the NFL and second-best in the division. 

Likely holding them back from a deep playoff run is their lack of offense. They finished 20th in offensive DVOA and faced the ninth-easiest set of opposing defenses. 

They did place 14th in defensive DVOA, but it again came against an easy schedule (21st-hardest, to be exact). 

This season, they played only three games against teams third or better in their respective conferences, going 0-3 in those contests with a -11 average margin of defeat. 

If seeds hold and all three home teams win in the wild-card round, Tampa will travel to San Francisco, who beat them 27-14 in an earlier meeting this season. 

Given the 49ers beat the Bucs earlier this season AND haven’t lost a meaningful home game to NFC opposition since the beginning of last season, that’s likely their undoing. 

Simply put, the Bucs need both the Rams and Packers to win as road dogs in the wild-card round to have a chance at the NFC title game. 

Tampa Bay is much better at home, and they’d at least have a puncher’s chance against the Rams. 

However, a lot has to go right for either their Super Bowl or NFC champion markets to cash. 

Add in the lack of respect for the Bucs in the betting market, and bettors should avoid both markets.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.