Texans vs Packers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 7

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Green Bay Packers' Jordan Love warms up before an NFL football game against the Minnesota Vikings Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Abbie Parr)
(AP Photo/Abbie Parr)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 16, 2024, 2:26 PM
  • The Packers are -2.5 point favorites vs the Texans
  • Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
  • Watch this game on CBS

The Houston Texans (5-1-0) visit Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers (4-2-0) on Oct. 20. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Green Bay, WI.

The Packers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-120).

The Texans vs. Packers Over/Under is 47.5 total points for the game.

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Texans vs. Packers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Texans+2.5 +10047.5 -110+125
Packers -2.5 -12047.5 -110-150

Texans vs. Packers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Packers will win this game with 69.2% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Texans vs Packers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Packers will cover the spread with 69.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Texans players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texans Player Prop Bets Today

  • Stefon Diggs has hit the Longest Reception Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.45 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Stefon Diggs has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.10 Units / 26% ROI)
  • C.J. Stroud has hit the Passing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.80 Units / 61% ROI)
  • C.J. Stroud has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.75 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Joe Mixon has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.40 Units / 34% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Packers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Packers Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Jordan Love has hit the TD Passes Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+12.85 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Jayden Reed has hit the Receptions Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.90 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Jordan Love has hit the Passing Yards Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.30 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Dontayvion Wicks has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+8.00 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Tucker Kraft has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.40 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games (+10.05 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.95 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have covered the 1H Spread in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.05 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 games (+3.95 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.95 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+7.60 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.40 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have covered the 1Q Spread in 15 of their last 22 games (+6.40 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 games (+6.20 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 games (+5.70 Units / 20% ROI)

Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans art 2-3 (-1.3 Units / -19.7% ROI).

  • Texans are 5-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.7 Units / 29.96% ROI
  • Texans are 2-4 when betting the Over for -2.5 Units / -37.31% ROI
  • Texans are 4-2 when betting the Under for +1.8 Units / ROI

Packers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Packers are 4-2 (+1.8 Units / 27.27% ROI).

  • Packers are 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.1 Units / 24.71% ROI
  • Packers are 3-2 when betting the Over for +0.8 Units / 12.12% ROI
  • Packers are 2-3 when betting the Under for -1.3 Units / -19.7% ROI

Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Green Bay Packers

The Texans are 3-1 (.750) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season — T-4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .521.

The Texans were 6-2 (.750) when allowing less than 3 sacks last season — 9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .637.

The Texans are 3-1 (.750) after a win this season — T-4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .521.

The Texans were 7-2 (.778) when passing for more than 250 yards last season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .586.

Green Bay Packers: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans

The Packers were 1-6 (.143) when throwing at least 1 interception last season — T-4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .371.

The Packers were 2-6 (.250) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season — T-4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .430.

The Packers are 3-8 (.273) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season — 10th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .381.

The Packers were undefeated (4-0) when averaging more than 5 yards per rush last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .607.

Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats

The Texans started 5 drives inside opposing territory in Week 6 — most in NFL.

The Texans have run successful plays on 30% of plays against a stacked front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Texans ran successful plays on 25% of rush attempts against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Texans have run successful plays on 26% of rush attempts against a stacked front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Green Bay Packers Offense: Important Stats

The Packers scored on 50% of their drives in the 3rd quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 29%.

The Packers have thrown for 14 TDs this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Packers ran successful plays on 12% of pass attempts against a base front in Week 6 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Packers ran successful plays on 61% of plays against a heavy rush last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats

The Texans defense allowed a passer rating of just 64.7 in the red zone (63 Pass Attempts) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 93.0.

The Texans defense has allowed opponents to catch just 8 of 27 passes (30% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 63%.

The Texans defense has allowed a Completion Pct of just 53% (96 completions/180 attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 65%.

The Texans defense allowed 7 broken tackles in Week 6 — T-2nd-most in NFL.

Green Bay Packers Defense: Important Stats

Offenses facing the Packers targeted RBs 38% of the time (12 Pass Attempts/32 plays) in Week 6 — highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Packers defense forced three and outs on 14% of opponent drives in the 1st half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 23%.

The Packers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 7.6 when the opposing QB has scrambled (12 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 63.3.

The Packers defense has allowed successful plays on 66% of plays open coverage since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 59%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.