Titans vs Commanders Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 13

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(AP Photo/Nick Wass)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 26, 2024, 12:47 PM

The Commanders are -5.5 point favorites vs the Titans
Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Tennessee Titans (3-8-0) visit Northwest Stadium to take on the Washington Commanders (7-5-0) on Dec. 1. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Landover, MD.

The Commanders are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Titans vs. Commanders Over/Under is 44.5 total points for the game.

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Titans vs. Commanders Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Titans	+5.5 -110	44.5 -110	+200
Commanders	-5.5 -110	44.5 -110	-250

Titans vs. Commanders Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Commanders will win this game with 51.1% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Titans vs Commanders Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Titans will cover the spread with 57.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Titans players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Titans Player Prop Bets Today

Nick Westbrook has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Chigoziem Okonkwo has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Mason Rudolph has hit the TD Passes Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.90 Units / 50% ROI)
Calvin Ridley has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+5.65 Units / 48% ROI)
Mason Rudolph has hit the Passing Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.70 Units / 58% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Commanders players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Commanders Player Prop Best Bets Today

Austin Seibert has hit the Field Goals Over in his last 7 games (+7.15 Units / 85% ROI)
Jayden Daniels has hit the Carries Under in his last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 89% ROI)
Austin Ekeler has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 82% ROI)
Zach Ertz has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.00 Units / 40% ROI)
Brian Robinson has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.35 Units / 51% ROI)

Titans Best Bets:

The Tennessee Titans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+14.30 Units / 53% ROI)
The Tennessee Titans have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 21 games (+7.65 Units / 30% ROI)
The Tennessee Titans have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 away games (+6.80 Units / 65% ROI)
The Tennessee Titans have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)
The Tennessee Titans have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.10 Units / 18% ROI)

Commanders Best Bets:

The Washington Commanders have covered the 3Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.90 Units / 25% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.70 Units / 46% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.10 Units / 20% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.20 Units / 15% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 20 games (+2.90 Units / 13% ROI)

Titans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Titans art 2-9 (-7.85 Units / -65.69% ROI).

Titans are 3-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.45 Units / -27.17% ROI
Titans are 6-4 when betting the Over for +1.6 Units / 13.22% ROI
Titans are 4-6 when betting the Under for -2.6 Units / ROI

Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders are 7-4 (+2.65 Units / 19.85% ROI).

Commanders are 7-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.5 Units / -2.16% ROI
Commanders are 8-4 when betting the Over for +3.6 Units / 27.27% ROI
Commanders are 4-8 when betting the Under for -4.8 Units / -36.36% ROI

Tennessee Titans: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders

The Titans are winless (0-6) after a win since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .528.

The Titans were 1-2 (.333) when forcing 2 or more turnovers last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .707.

The Titans were winless (0-8) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.

The Titans were 1-7 (.125) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .464.

Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Tennessee Titans

The Commanders are 6-3 (.667) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — 10th-best in NFL. The Titans have turned the ball over 20 times this season — 3rd-most in NFL.

The Commanders were 1-10 (.091) when intercepting no passes last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .348.

The Commanders were 3-11 (.214) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .417.

The Commanders were 2-6 (.250) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

Additional Matchup Notes for Tennessee Titans vs. Washington Commanders

The Commanders have averaged 0.23 epa per play against a light rush since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best in NFL. The Titans have allowed 0.29 epa per play with a light rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Commanders have run successful plays on 66.7% of rush attempts against a base rush this season — T-best in NFL. The Titans have allowed successful plays on 60.6% of rush attempts with a base rush this season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Commanders have run successful plays on 62.5% of pass attempts against a heavy rush this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Titans have pressured opposing QBs on 22.2% of pass attempts with a heavy rush this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Titans have been successful on just 31.5% of plays they have run against a light front since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Commanders have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 36.7% of plays with a light front since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Titans have thrown for 2,253 passing yards in 11 games (just 204.8 YPG) this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Commanders have allowed just 189.1 passing yards per game this season — 4th-best in NFL.

The Titans ran just 3.1% offensive plays in the red zone last week — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Commanders allowed their opponent to run just 8.2% of plays in the red zone last week — 5th-best in NFL.

Tennessee Titans Offense: Important Stats

The Titans have run 33% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Titans have allowed a QB Hit on 27% of pass attempts since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Titans allowed a QB hit on 29% of pass attempts last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Titans have run 35% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

Washington Commanders Offense: Important Stats

The Commanders have run 22% of their plays in the red zone in the 1st quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 12%.

The Commanders threw the ball 57% of the time (267 Pass Attempts/465 plays) on 1st down last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Commanders have scored on 53% of their drives this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

The Commanders have run successful plays on 66% of plays in the red zone since Week 9 — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

Tennessee Titans Defense: Important Stats

The Titans defense has allowed successful plays on 27% of rush attempts with a stacked front this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Titans defense allowed successful plays on 39% of rush attempts with a base rush last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 57%.

The Titans defense has allowed a passer rating of 95.3 on contested throws (127 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 66.9.

The Titans defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 44% on 3rd and short this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 58%.

Washington Commanders Defense: Important Stats

The Commanders defense allowed 21 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — most in NFL.

The Commanders defense has allowed a passer rating of 106.2 with a base rush (798 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 90.0.

The Commanders defense allowed scores on 51% of opponent drives in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 29%.

The Commanders defense allowed a passer rating of 109.4 with a base rush (547 Pass Attempts) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 89.4.

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