- The Vikings are a 6-point home favorite against the Colts.
- The Colts have won four straight as road underdogs following a division loss.
- My Vikings vs. Colts prediction centers around the over/under.
Off consecutive defeats, the Vikings return home on extended rest to battle the Colts on Sunday Night Football.
Minnesota started the year 5-0 but has quickly fallen to 5-2. Those losses came to the Lions and the Rams, who handed Minnesota a 30-20 loss last Thursday night.
Indianapolis has five covers in their last six games, but they’re currently 4-4 on the season. On Sunday, they’ll look for Joe Flacco to provide a spark over Anthony Richardson.
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NFL Week 9 Odds: Vikings vs. Colts
Vikings vs. Colts Prediction, SNF
Based on the strength of both offenses and the lack of quality on Indianapolis’ defense, my Vikings vs. Colts prediction is the pregame Total Over 45.5 Points (-110).
I expect the Vikings will do the lion’s share of scoring here. They’re coming off extended rest at home, where they’ve scored in spades this season.
The Vikings averaged 28.7 points per game against the 49ers, Texans and Lions. That’s not nothing against three defenses ranking 12th, eighth and fifth in EPA per play.
Now Minnesota gets a Colts team without a good defense. Indianapolis sits 15th in EPA per play, but they’re 23rd in dropback EPA/play.
Additionally, Minnesota ranks sixth in yards per completion, while Indianapolis sits 21st in the corresponding defensive category.
I simultaneously worry about Minnesota’s defense.
The Colts are uniquely equipped to counter Minnesota’s love of blitzing. Per PFF, Indy leads the league in pass-blocking rankings and run-blocking rankings.
Plus, the move to Flacco leaves me encouraged. Of Indianapolis’ three best PFF offensive grades this year, two came with Flacco as the starting quarterback.
The Colts similarly have an edge over the Minnesota secondary.
Indianapolis ranks third in yards per completion (12.1) and face a Vikings defense 11th in the defensive category (9.9).
If the game script plays out where Minnesota is ahead, I remain confident in the Colts’ ability to contribute points in garbage time.
Pair that with Minnesota’s offensive strength, and I’ll back the over on Sunday Night Football.
Vikings vs. Colts: NFL Public Betting Trends
Check back on Friday for Vikings vs. Colts public betting data and insights.
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