- Based on historical data, bettors should back conference home teams off a bad loss.
- A scenario that predicts home favorites are worth a bet in non-conference games.
The 2024 season is officially underway, and NHL odds are regularly available for avid hockey bettors.
Although hockey can sometimes prove a fickle sport to bettors, I’ve identified two NHL betting systems that have proved historically profitable.
NHL Predictions: Betting System No. 1 Picks
Based on the below criterion, the Colorado Avalanche (-130) are predicted to win on Oct. 16 against the Boston Bruins.
This first NHL betting system looks at home favorites priced between -200 and -110 playing non-conference games in either the regular or postseason.
Here’s the remaining criterion:
- The team’s win/loss streak is -2, -3 or -4 games
- The team made the postseason last year
When those criterion are met, such home favorites are 237-119 (66.6%) since the 2006 season.
NHL Predictions: Betting System No. 2 Picks
Based on the below criterion, there are currently no predictions for the second NHL betting system.
This second system looks for home teams in games 9-61 against a conference opponent.
Here are the remaining criterion:
- The opponent’s previous game margin is between +1 and +7
- The team’s previous game margin is between -8 and -3
- The previous game the team closed a market favorite
Under those criterion, home teams are 168-156 ATS (51.9%) for a 24.5% return on investment, including 50-15 when that team flips from a favorite to an underdog.
Just since the 2018 NHL season, those home teams are 63-48 ATS (56.8%), including 15-4 ATS when they close as an underdog.
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