Northwestern vs Michigan State Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today – NCAAB, Mar. 6

(AP Photo)
  • Michigan State (16-12) is a -9.5 point favorite vs Northwestern (15-12)
  • Total (Over/Under): 135.5 points
  • Northwestern / Michigan State TV channel: BTN

The Northwestern Wildcats (15-12) visit Breslin Center to take on the Michigan State Spartans (16-12) on Mar. 6. Tip off is scheduled for 7:00pm EST in East Lansing, MI.

Michigan State is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-105).

The Northwestern vs. Michigan State Over/Under is 135.5 total points.

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Northwestern vs. Michigan State Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Northwestern+9.5 -115O 135.5 -115+340
Michigan State -9.5 -105U 135.5 -105-450

Northwestern vs Michigan State Prediction for Today:

The winning team model predicts Michigan State will win this college basketball game with 83.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups.

Northwestern vs Michigan State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the spread model predicts Michigan State will cover the spread with 51.9% confidence for today’s game.


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  • Northwestern has hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 28 games (+10.25 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Northwestern has hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 32 games (+7.90 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Northwestern has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 18 of their last 32 games (+3.25 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Northwestern have covered the Spread in 17 of their last 32 games (+2.70 Units / 8% ROI)
  • Northwestern has hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 32 games (+1.90 Units / 5% ROI)
  • Michigan State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+5.80 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Michigan State has hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+4.25 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Michigan State have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+4.20 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Michigan State has hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 33 games (+3.00 Units / 8% ROI)
  • Michigan State have covered the 1H Spread in 11 of their last 21 games at home (+0.55 Units / 2% ROI)

Northwestern Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Northwestern has a 15-12 record against the spread this college basketball season (+1.8 Units / 5.64% ROI).

  • 17-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.55 Units / 15.92% ROI
  • 17-11 when betting the Over for +4.9 Units / 15.36% ROI
  • 11-17 when betting the Under for -7.7 Units / -24.14% ROI

Michigan State Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Michigan State has a 16-12 record against the spread this college basketball season (+2.8 Units / 8.78% ROI).

  • 13-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -22.95 Units / -22.87% ROI
  • 13-16 when betting the Over for -4.65 Units / -14.53% ROI
  • 16-13 when betting the Under for +1.75 Units / 5.5% ROI

Northwestern Offensive Stats & Trends:

Northwestern has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8 (373 assists/ 211 TOs) this season — tied for 4th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.1

Northwestern has averaged 9.5 turnovers per game (540 turnovers/57 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 7th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 12.1

Northwestern has averaged 9.2 turnovers per game (211 turnovers/23 games) this season — 3rd best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 11.4

Northwestern has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8 (373 assists/ 211 TOs) this season — tied for 3rd best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 1.3

Michigan State Offensive Stats & Trends:

Michigan State has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.7 (414 assists/ 237 TOs) this season — tied for 8th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.1

Michigan State is shooting 38% from three (413/1,076) since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 34%

Michigan State is shooting 38% from three (142/372) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among Big 10 Teams; League Avg: 34%

Michigan State has averaged 4.3 turnovers per game (103 turnovers/24 games) in the second half this season — best among Big 10 Teams; League Avg: 5.2

Northwestern Defensive Stats & Trends:

Northwestern has averaged 22.4 defensive rebounds per game (515 rebounds/23 games) this season — tied for lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 26.1

Northwestern has averaged 22.4 defensive rebounds per game (515 rebounds/23 games) this season — tied for 31st lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 24.7

Northwestern has 176 steals this season — 3rd most among Big 10 Teams

Northwestern has allowed an average of 1.35 points per shot (1,406 points/1,044 shots) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — highest among Big 10 Teams; League Avg: 1.25

Michigan State Defensive Stats & Trends:

Michigan State has allowed an average of 1.17 points per shot (1,575 points/1,348 shots) this season — tied for 42nd best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.23

Michigan State has allowed opponents to shoot 40% (538/1,348) this season — 10th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 44%

Michigan State has allowed opponents to shoot 32% from three (185/586) this season — tied for 38th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 33%

Michigan State has allowed opponents to shoot 40% (538/1,348) this season — 2nd best among Big 10 Teams; League Avg: 43%


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Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.