- The – are favorites vs the –
- Orioles starting pitcher: Tyler Wells
- Braves starting pitcher: Bryce Elder
- Watch the game on NBC
The Baltimore Orioles () visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves () on Sunday, May 7, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 11:35am EDT in Atlanta.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Orioles vs Braves Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Orioles are 22-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 16-18 ATS.
Orioles vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | O | ||
| Braves | U |
Orioles vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Orioles vs Braves and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+8.95 Units / 37% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 12 away games (+8.85 Units / 63% ROI)
- Adley Rutschman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+7.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+6.85 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 31 games (+10.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+9.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- Vaughn Grissom has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.95 Units / 51% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+7.95 Units / 38% ROI)
Braves vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
Braves vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Braves vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 33 games (+11.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 30 games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 20 away games (+7.80 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 33 games (+7.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.25 Units / 68% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 34 games (+14.65 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 25 games (+11.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 34 games (+7.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.80 Units / 28% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 20-13 against the Run Line (+6.4 Units / 15.98% ROI).
- 22-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.7 Units / 21.06% ROI
- 20-12 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.05 Units / 19.45% ROI
- 12-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.8 Units / -26.81% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 16-18 against the Run Line (-0.85 Units / -2.15% ROI).
- 23-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.75 Units / 14.22% ROI
- 21-12 when betting on the total runs Over for +8 Units / 21.65% ROI
- 12-21 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.45 Units / -30.25% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .171 (21-for-123) against Tyler Wells this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .243 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .172 (11-for-64) against Tyler Wells on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: .341 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .175 (10-for-57) against Tyler Wells in non-two strike counts this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB*; League Avg: .331 — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 15% (27/178) against Tyler Wells since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 64% (35/55) against Bryce Elder this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .140 (8-for-57) against Bryce Elder this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — 94th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (57/99) against Bryce Elder this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 95th Percentile.
Bryce Elder has allowed an OBP of just .210 (62 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .309 — 94th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Orioles are 38-43 (.469) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
The Orioles are 21-8 (.724) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Orioles are 85-26 (.766) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
The Orioles are 13-7 (.650) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .481.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Braves are 25-18 (.581) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Braves are 13-3 (.812) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 12-5 (.706) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 7-5 (.583) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .270.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have an OPS of .818 (490 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .742.
The Orioles are batting just .156 with two-strikes since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Orioles hitters have an OBP of .357 (490 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .326.
Orioles hitters have an OPS of .793 (801 PA’s) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .715.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .466 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Braves hitters are slugging .546 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Braves are batting .273 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .810 (2,077 PA’s) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .118 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Orioles pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D10
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Lucas Luetge (Braves): Bicep, D15
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Travis d’Arnaud (Braves): Concussion, D7
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Knee, D15
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