5 Longshots to Target at the Masters

AUGUSTA, Ga. — If you’re the type whose annual rite of spring includes firing on a few longshot bets for the Masters Tournament, I’ve got some bad news for you: This hasn’t been reliable — or profitable — strategy in recent years.

We haven’t witnessed a champion with triple-digit pre-tournament Masters odds since Charl Schwartzel (100/1) in 2011. The past dozen editions of the year’s first major have yielded only two other “longshots” if you define longshot as I do, meaning anyone at 50/1 or longer.

Whether you’re seeking another Schwartzel or simply another Danny Willett (50/1 in 2016) or Hideki Matsuyama (60/1 in 2021), there are plenty of players with tantalizing price tags in the outright markets this week.

Remember: These are outright selections only. The answers might differ if we’re looking for top-10/20 props with longer odds, but for outrights we need players with a ceiling high enough to take down the Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm types in this field.

Here are five — well, actually, six of ‘em.

5 Longshots to Target at the Masters

Sam Burns (+5000)

In 14 career major championship starts, Burns has a best finish of just T-20. That might not bode well for his chances this week, but I’d rather look at this as an opportunity to jump on him at an inflated number before he starts playing better.

He’s exactly the type of player we should be seeking when he gets into this type of price range, as his C-game projects a fairly low floor, but his A-game carries a lofty ceiling. One of the better putters amongst the game’s elite level, Burns could certainly turn a hot performance with the flatstick into a title contention this week.

Corey Conners (+6600) / Tyrrell Hatton (+6600)

I’m throwing together two of the game’s better second-shot players who are listed at the same price on this second-shot golf course. Conners’ game has been trending in the right direction for his last few starts and the Canadian owns a stellar record at this one, with three consecutive top-10s prior to last year’s missed cut.

I’ll value him in this spot a little higher than Hatton, who might be too combustible to ride the inevitable emotional waves brought upon by Augusta National’s own golf gods. The price, though, might be too enticing to pass up, as there’s an excellent chance the Englishman might’ve been half this number before leaving the PGA Tour for LIV Golf.

Sergio Garcia (+9000)

Just last year, Brooks Koepka parlayed a pre-Masters victory on the LIV Golf circuit into a 54-hole lead and eventual runner-up finish.

Without the same analytical data as PGA Tour players and with a smaller sample size of competition this year, it’s admittedly difficult to handicap those on LIV, but I’ll go with the formula that worked for Koepka and hope that Sergio can keep some momentum off the strong performance he displayed in Miami this past weekend, where he wound up losing in a playoff.

Apparently I’m not the only one who sees value here, either, as he could’ve been had at 150/1 odds as recently as Sunday morning.

Adam Scott (+10000)

If you’d asked me five years ago what a 43-year-old Adam Scott’s schedule might look like, I probably would’ve answered that the Masters might be the first time we’d see him. That’s not a criticism, but rather the opposite; he’d always seemed like the type who’d be happier hanging out on a beach with his growing family than grinding away on PGA Tour ranges every week.

Boy, was I wrong. Scott has already played seven events this year and while he’s not exactly knocking on the door to win, he’s five top-20 results. At some point, the late-career grind is going to pay off in another victory and I don’t mind taking a shot on history repeating itself for the 2013 champion at triple-digits.

Keegan Bradley (+17500)

Last but not least on this list is Bradley, who embodies everything I like chasing in an outright longshot — namely, he owns a massive ceiling, even when competing against the best of the best. With victories in a major, WGC, FedEx Cup playoff event and signature tournament, he’s proven that his best stuff is good enough to beat the game’s top players on any given week.

He’s never quite figured out Augusta National, with nothing better than a 22nd-place finish in seven starts, but with such risk comes value, and of all the players in this range on the pre-tournament odds board, he’s the one who should hold the most inherent value in the outright marketplace.