At most golf tournaments, getting off to a hot start is helpful for those with designs on eventually winning the title.
At the Masters, it’s absolutely paramount to success.
The first edition of this event was contested in 1934. It took two decades for a player to win who’d been outside the top 10 after the opening round.
In more recent times, every winner since 2006 has been inside the top 10 on Thursday evening, except for Tiger Woods in 2019, who was just one notch further back in a share of 11th place.
While there’s rationale behind throwing some cash on triple-digit longshots to post the best opening-round total at most other tournaments, those winning a crystal vase for the day’s lowest score at Augusta National are usually among the best of the best.
Over the past decade, FRL honors have gone to the likes of Jordan Spieth (three times), Bryson DeChambeau (twice), Brooks Koepka (twice), Jon Rahm, Viktor Hovland and Dustin Johnson.
If we recognize that Charley Hoffman was once a Thursday wunderkind at Augusta National, the only under-the-radar player during this time frame who held or shared the overnight lead was Dylan Frittelli in the November version of this event back in 2020.
Before we get to a half-dozen FRL options for this week, a big promotion for BetMGM bettors: Add any straight First Round Leader bet on the Masters to your betslip and apply the Bet & Get Token. Once you place your bet, you’ll get a bonus bet back immediately, win or lose.
That feels like reason enough to start firing those FRL plays, so let’s get right to ‘em.
6 First-Round Leader Picks for the Masters
Jon Rahm (+2500)
There’s been plenty of consternation over Scottie Scheffler’s failure to win so far in a half-dozen starts this year, but it might be more shocking that Rahm has yet to win in five appearances on the LIV Golf circuit. That doesn’t mean he isn’t playing well, though; he owns four top-6 finishes already. In opening rounds at the Masters, he owns a 71.25 scoring average, which includes a leading 7-under 65 in his winning performance two years ago.
Jordan Spieth (+4000)
Regular readers of my weekly previews know that I love the idea of chasing volatility in the FRL market and perhaps no player is more volatile right now than Spieth. Admit it: You could envision him shooting 80 this Thursday just as easily as you could see him shooting 64. I don’t mind playing the ceiling here, especially since he held the first-round lead outright in 2015, 2016 and 2018.
Will Zalatoris (+4500)
In three career Masters starts, Zalatoris owns results of second, sixth and ninth, which has helped cement his status as a big-game hunter who tends to play his best golf in the most important events. Sure, the putter might remain a bit too balky for us to have full confidence in him this week, but that’s only more reason to back him for just a single-round investment.
Jason Day (+5500)
I’m a firm believer that reuniting with his longtime instructor Colin Swatton will pay massive dividends in the long run, if not also the short term. He’s stealthily finished inside the top-40 in 13 of his last 14 starts dating back to last summer and the upside might only be increasing. I’d rather play him for an outright at the U.S. Open or Open Championship, but don’t mind him for FRL at the Masters, where he owns seven top-25s in 13 starts and – more importantly, for these purposes – has twice opened with a 67.
Wyndham Clark (+5000)
There’s not too much course history here, as Clark played this tournament for the first time last year and missed the cut. That’s not a huge shock, as he’s also shown some massive volatility in recent years. But remember, volatility can pay off, too. Already this season, Clark has held the Thursday overnight lead at both the WM Phoenix Open and Arnold Palmer Invitational, while his T-5 finish at the Texas Children’s Houston Open suggests he’s ready to keep it going.
Russell Henley (+4500)
No offense to Henley, who did everything he needed to win the API last month, but I’m still not a firm believer that some sort of floodgates are going to open for him. Instead, I’d rather bank on his usual fast starts, as his 68.43 first-round scoring average ranks seventh on the PGA Tour this season.
