U.S. Open 2025: PGA Expert Picks for Oakmont

For the first time since 2017, the U.S. Open returns to Oakmont Country Club in June. 

Scottie Scheffler (+300) is the current favorite to claim victory in Western Pennsylvania. He’s tailed closely on the odds board by Rory McIlroy (+700) and defending champion Bryson DeChambeau (+800). 

Below, bettors can find the top choices in the U.S. Open odds, along with my early U.S. Open picks. For the full set of odds, head to the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

U.S. Open Odds

U.S. Open Trends

Before we proceed, here’s a trend to guide your thinking for this outright selection. 

Since Jordan Spieth won the U.S. Open in 2015, eight of the previous 10 winners finished T-11th or better at the preceding major. 

The only exceptions are Wyndham Clark, who missed the cut at the 2023 PGA Championship, and Brooks Koepka, who didn’t play the 2018 Masters. 

Two other trends are potentially worth noting. Since the PGA Championship moved to May, all U.S. Open winners except Clark finished T-35th or better at both the Masters and PGA Championship.

Since Justin Rose at the 2013 U.S. Open, all winners except Clark previously recorded a T-8th or better at a major championship. Since 2000, all but four U.S. winners achieved the same feat.

PGA Tour Expert Picks: U.S. Open

*Odds reflective at the time of writing and subject to movement. 

Jon Rahm (+1200)

As noted with Zalatoris, the two previous winners at Oakmont – Dustin Johnson, Angel Cabrera – also own Green Jackets. 

Before Johnson and Cabrera, Oakmont hosted five additional U.S. Open championships. All five winners own a top-five finish at Augusta, including three winners. 

That leads me to Rahm, who finished 14th at Augusta before finishing 8th at the PGA Championship. That marks three top-15s in his last four major starts.

Rahm missed the 2024 U.S. Open, but the Spaniard owns an excellent record at the major. Including a win in 2021, Rahm finished no worse than 23rd in his last five U.S. Opens. 

He also owns a 2022 victory at Augusta National with prior experience at Oakmont. In 2016, he finished as the low amateur despite missing the cut. 

What gives me the most confidence in Rahm is his recent putting record at majors. 

Oakmont’s greens present a massive challenge. It should be met by Rahm, who has gained +3 strokes putting in two straight majors. 

As a result, I’ll back Rahm to claim a second U.S. Open title in June. 

Will Zalatoris (+5000)

[Writer’s Note: Zalatoris won’t partake in the U.S. Open after having back surgery. Accordingly, he’s no longer a bet]. 

Perhaps a bit out of sight following a limited 2024 campaign, Zalatoris offers the profile of a player who could succeed at Oakmont. 

While he has yet to produce an eye-opening 2025 performance, his last two starts at The Players and Arnold Palmer Invitation offer encouragement. 

He ranked sixth or better at the API in both SG: T2G and SG: APP. At TPC Sawgrass, he struggled from a tee-to-green standpoint but ranked 13th on approach. 

But what really jazzes my opinion of Zalatoris are his past results at a few correlative courses. 

He finished second at both The Country Club and Southern Hills. Those are both long, narrow par 70’s with similar traits to Oakmont. 

Additionally, a strong correlation appears to exist between Oakmont and Augusta National. 

Each of the last two winners at Oakmont also own green jackets. While Zalatoris has yet to capture that major title, he has captured three top-10 finishes in three appearances. 

Pair those trends with his length off the tee and improving metrics, and I like the price on Zalatoris at this moment.

Scottie Scheffler (+300)

As much as I’d like to find a betting longshot to come out of nowhere and win, all signs point to a Scheffler victory at Oakmont. 

I referenced above the natural correlation between Oakmont and Augusta National. With two wins at the famed Georgia course, Scheffler fits the mold, like Rahm. 

Everyone knows that Scheffler has dominated on tour this season. But the extent of his dominance left even me surprised. 

Amongst all PGA Tour players, Scheffler created 92.7 SG: T2G over the last three months. For reference, second-place Tommy Fleetwood comes in at 47.9. 

The gap between Scheffler and Fleetwood is as big as the gap between Fleetwood and 81st-placed Matthias Schmid over that span. 

Also worth noting: Scheffler has created at least 2.5 SG: T2G PER ROUND in 53% of those 36 rounds. Second-place Shane Lowry has accomplished that feat only 38% of the time. 

While that sample doesn’t include Rahm or Bryson DeChambeau, I’m already invested in one, and DeChambeau has struggled with his irons of late. 

If that continues at Oakmont, I question if the defending champ chips well enough on lightning-quick greens to keep pace. 

Pair that with the fact Scheffler leads all Tour players in bogey and double bogey avoidance over that three-month span, and I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t win at Oakmont.

Tommy Fleetwood Top-20 Finish (+120)

While a Fleetwood win would shock me a bit, the recent metrics suggest contention at Oakmont isn’t an unlikely outcome.

For most of the 2025 season, Fleetwood’s biggest issue remained the putter. In his first seven events, the Englishman combined to lose -3.2 strokes putting. 

Recently, Fleetwood emerged as a decent putter compared to the field average. Over his last five events, he gained with the flat stick four times for a cumulative total of +8.7. 

While the occasional slipup is still possible – he lost 3.2 strokes putting at the PGA Championship – I’m electing to bank on his absurd SG: T2G game to help him at Oakmont. 

For the entirety of the 2025 season, only Scheffler and Rory McIlroy amassed more strokes tee-to-green than Fleetwood. Over the last three months, only Scheffler has a better record. 

Fleetwood also cashed a top-20 ticket for bettors in each of his last two U.S. Open starts, with four top-20s in nine total U.S. Opens. 

Pair that with the fact that Fleetwood ranks sixth in my full 2025 model, and I like the price on him to grab a top-20 finish. 

Sepp Straka Ladder: Top-5 (+650), Top-10 (+320) & Top-20 (+150)

Initially, concern existed with Straka in that most of his recent success stemmed from his putter. 

Over his last three events, Straka gained +15.2 strokes putting, by far the most in this U.S. Open field. 

But it slightly surprised me that, even though his ball-striking metrics took a dip from his 2025 peak, Straka remains one of the best in the field. 

Over his last 12 rounds, Straka ranks 17th in SG: T2G and fifth in SG: APP. He also ranks fifth in fairways gained, a stat that should come in handy at Oakmont. 

Straka also ranks 13th in greens in regulation gained and third in bogey avoidance over his last 12 measured rounds. 

While missed cuts at both the PGA Championship and the Masters loom large, the emphasis on fairways over distance at Oakmont should benefit Straka. 

This season, Straka ranks eighth on the PGA Tour in fairways hit percentage. He also leads the tour in Greens in Regulation percentage from the fairway.

On only three instances this season has Straka lost strokes from tee to green: the PGA Championship, the Masters and the Genesis at Torrey Pines. Coincidentally, all three place an emphasis on distance over accuracy.

Lastly, since the Arnold Palmer, Straka owns five top-20s in eight starts. Here’s how he ranks in various time iterations of my model:

• Last 12 Rounds: 2nd
• Last 24 Rounds: 2nd
• Last 36 Rounds: 4th
• All 2025 Rounds: 2nd

Based on those positions, I’ll take Straka to finish inside the top-20 for the first time at the U.S. Open.

Keegan Bradley Top-40 Finish (-125)

Bradley arrives at Oakmont with two known quantities: an outstanding tee-to-green record and a keen ability to hit fairways in bunches. 

In 2025, Bradley ranks fifth in SG: T2G, 12th in SG: APP and 29th in fairways gained. He simultaneously sits 19th in greens in regulation gained and 30th in bogey avoidance. 

For the entire 2025 season, Bradley places ninth in my model, but certain metrics improve as the timeframe decreases. 

Over the last 24 rounds, Bradley jumps to second in SG: T2G, 10th in SG: APP and 13th in greens in regulation. 

Bradley troubled his tournament placements because of a weak putter. 

However, the flat stick saw improvement recently at Quail Hollow and Muirfield Village, where Bradley secured back-to-back top-10s. 

At the Truist, RBC Heritage, Masters and Valero Texas Open, Bradley lost -15.4 strokes putting. Those outputs mean Bradley ranked 160th in SG: Putting over his last 24 rounds. 

But Bradley jumped to 34th in SG: Putting over his last eight rounds, where he gained +2.2. 

Pair that with the fact Bradley ranks 17th in three-putt avoidance this season – including eighth over his last eight rounds – and I’ll lay the juice on Bradley to secure a third straight top-40.

U.S. Open Betting Model

• SG: Tee-to-Green (10%)
• SG: Off the Tee (10%)
• Fairways Gained (5%)
• SG: Approach (20%)
• Greens in Regulation Gained (10%)
• Bogey Avoidance (20%)
• Double Bogey Avoidance (5%)
• SG: Putting (5%)
• SG: Putting – 5 to 10 feet (5%)
• Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 Yards (10%)

U.S. Open 2025: Public Betting Data & Insights

In terms of the outright market, support is heavily centered on two players at BetMGM: Scottie Scheffler and Bryson DeChambeau.

As of Wednesday morning, Scheffler accounts for 16.4% of bets placed and 30.2% of money wagered. DeChambeau, the defending champion, has amassed 12% of bets placed and 15.3% of money wagered.

No other player has cleared 7% of all money wagered. The player closest to DeChambeau from a money wagered standpoint is Jon Rahm (+1200), who comes in at 6.6%.

From a derivatives standpoint, here are the most-bet players for the top-5, top-10, top-20 and top-40 markets by total tickets:

Top-5 Finish

• Bryson DeChambeau (+160)
• Scottie Scheffler (-190)
• Collin Morikawa (+400)
• Jon Rahm (+240)
• Tommy Fleetwood (+650)

Top-10 Finish

• Scottie Scheffler (-325)
• Bryson DeChambeau (-135)
• Collin Morikawa (+200)
• Sepp Straka (+320)
• Ludvig Aberg (+225)

Top-20 Finish

• Harris English (+225)
• Sepp Straka (+150)
• Shane Lowry (+130)
• Collin Morikawa (-105)
• Xander Schauffele (-120)

Top-40 Finish

• Aaron Rai (+110)
• Harris English (-125)
• Nick Taylor (+125)
• Cameron Young (+100)
• Keegan Bradley (-125)