PGA Expert Picks This Week: The Players

Below are my PGA expert picks for The Players based on golf odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Players vie for a $25 million purse this week at TPC Sawgrass with Scottie Scheffler (+500) setting sights on a third straight Players championship. 

Only three other players – Rory McIlroy (+1100), Collin Morikawa (+1400) and Ludvig Aberg (+1800) – sit at +2000 or shorter to win this week. 

Let’s dive into my Players Championship predictions. 

PGA Tour Expert Picks This Week

Sepp Straka Outright (+3300) & Top-20 Finish (+160)

Based on Straka’s outstanding ball striking metrics and his previous success at TPC Sawgrass, I predict Straka Wins (+3300) and records a Top-20 Finish (+160). 

I’ll be surprised if Straka doesn’t find himself in contention this week. Entering the Players, Straka has recorded two straight top-11 finishes with five top-20’s in his last six events. 

Straka sits ninth and fourth, respectively, in SG: T2G and SG: APP. He simultaneously ranks seventh in good drives gained and Par 5 Efficiency while sitting second in greens in regulation gained. 

The Austrian international has produced mixed results at Sawgrass, but finished 16th at this event last year. That came two years after a top-10 finish at The Players. 

But Straka arrives at this event playing his best golf. Of his five best career SG: T2G rounds, two came in his last five events. 

Of the nine measured categories in my mixed condition model, Straka ranks 11th or better in the field in all but one. 

As a result, I like the prices on him to win and record a top-20 finish. 

Shane Lowry Outright (+4000) & Top-20 Finish (+160)

Based on Lowry’s putting success at Bay Hill and his ball striking record at TPC Sawgrass, I predict Lowry Wins (+4000) and records a Top-20 Finish (+160). 

If Lowry can put it all together this week, there’s a good chance he contends at a venue where he’s notched a top-20 finish three of the last four years. 

The knock against Lowry has always been the putter. But he’s coming off a +3.9 strokes gained putting event at Bay Hill. 

He also gained +5.6 strokes putting at Pebble Beach, where he recorded a runner-up finish. 

Lowry sits 14th and 20th, respectively, in SG: T2G and SG: APP this calendar year. However, 60% of SG: T2G total and 88% of SG: APP total came in his last two events. 

That theme continues with Lowry’s bogey avoidance and birdies or better gained outputs as he’s excelled at Bay Hill and PGA National. 

As a result, I like Lowry to own a higher win equity at this tournament than his odds suggest. 

Joel Dahmen Outright (+15000) & Top-40 Finish (+160)

Based on Dahmen’s improving tee-to-green record and his past success at TPC Sawgrass, I predict Dahmen Wins (+15000) and records a Top-40 Finish (+160). 

The odds suggest that Dahmen needs a lot to go right to win this event and even produce a positive result. 

But Dahmen finished 11th here last season and 12th back in 2019. Across all five appearances at Sawgrass, he finished 40th or better three times. 

Dahmen started 2025 with consecutive missed cuts, but he finished inside the top-40 in three of his previous four events. 

His short game has proved a problem – Dahmen lost strokes around the green in six straight events – but his ball-striking is strong. 

Dahmen ranks 28th in SG: T2G and 11th in SG: APP this calendar year. 

For his first four events, Dahmen posted zero strokes gained tee-to-green and +3 strokes on approach. Over his last two events: +12 strokes tee-to-green and +10.6 on approach. 

While the level of competition leaves something to be desired, it’s encouraging enough to back him at inflated numbers where he’s produced previous success. 

Collin Morikawa Outright (+1400) & Top-10 Finish (+150)

Based on Morikawa’s ball-striking improvement at Bay Hill and his 2023 success at TPC Sawgrass, I predict Morikawa Wins (+1400) and records a Top-10 Finish (+150). 

I spent a lot of time debating between Morikawa and Justin Thomas (+2500). Ultimately, I placed more stock into Morikawa’s metrics in spite of JT’s superior record at Sawgrass. 

Morikawa started four times at TPC Sawgrass and finished inside the top-40 only once. But that 2023 performance saw him gain +9.8 strokes tee-to-green and +9.4 on approach. 

Although Thomas owns an outright win at Sawgrass, his starts since that win resulted in 33-60-MC. That gives Morikawa the better recent finishing position. 

As a result, this bet comes down to Morikawa’s superior metrics. 

Morikawa leads the field in SG: T2G this calendar year while ranking fourth on approach. He simultaneously ranks fifth in Par 5 Efficiency and first in SG: TOT over the last 24 rounds. 

Plus, Morikawa’s massive improvement from the Genesis to the API must be considered. Here are some movements:

• Par 4 Efficiency: -6.7 at Genesis, +7.7 at API
• Greens in Regulation Gained: -5.4 at Genesis, +4.9 at API
• SG: T2G: +0.6 at Genesis, +12.2 at API

Even if you sample Morikawa’s entire 2025 season, he still sits eighth in my mixed condition model. Accordingly, I like the price on his outright and to finish inside the top-10.

The Players Mixed Condition Model

• SG: T2G, 2025 (20%)
• Good Drives Gained, 2025 (5%)
• SG: APP, 2025 (15%)
• Birdies or Better Gained, 2025 (10%)
• Greens in Regulation Gained, 2025 (10%)
• Bogey Avoidance, 2025 (10%)
• Par 4 Efficiency, 2025 (10%)
• Par 5 Efficiency, 2025 (10%)
• SG: TOT, Last 24 Rounds (5%)
• SG: TOT, TPC Sawgrass L24 Rounds (5%)