PGA Expert Picks this Week

Below are my PGA Tour expert picks for the 3M Open based on golf odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook 

A relatively weak field descends upon TPC Twin Cities a week following the Open Championship. Tony Finau, a previous winner at this event, sits atop the board at +1100. 

From there, the top five players in futures market pricing are Sam Burns (+1800), Akshay Bhatia (+2200), Sahith Theegala (+2200) and Luke Clanton (+2500). 

Without further delay, let’s dive into my picks for the 2024 3M Open. 

3M Open Prediction No. 1

Tony Finau Top-10 Finish (+130)

Variance resigned Finau, who shot a 10-over 81 on Friday at Royal Troon, to a missed cut. 

However, I’m choosing not to read much into that finish, as harsh conditions likely drove up Finau’s score. 

With extra time to prepare, Finau now finds himself in a good buy-low opportunity at a course where he’s thrived. In five starts at TPC Twin Cities, Finau owns a win and three top-10’s. 

Prior to his disappointing result at the Open, Finau reeled off three consecutive top-10’s in much stronger fields. 

His underlying metrics are superb as well. 

Over his last 36 rounds, he’s second in  SG: T2G and SG: APP. For the season, he’s sixth and first, respectively, in Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 yards and Par 5 Efficiency: 550-600 yards. 

Lastly, dating back to the 2023 season, Finau is sixth in opportunities gained under easy conditions and 23rd in birdies or better gained. 

Given he’s first in my mixed condition model, I rate this an outstanding price. 

3M Open Prediction No. 2

Keegan Bradley Top-20 Finish (+170)

The results for Bradley at TPC Twin Cities aren’t exactly encouraging — two appearances, no finishes better than 39th with two made cuts. 

However, Bradley offers decent upside this time around, given his strength with the putter. 

Of the players 10th or better in my mixed condition model, Bradley (10th overall) is the only player inside the top-100 in SG: Putting on bentgrass greens. In fact, he’s second. 

What Bradley lacks in top-tier ball-striking — he’s 36th and 40th in SG: T2G and SG: APP over his last 36 rounds — he makes up for with the putter. 

Dating back to last year, he’s eighth and 13th, respectively, in opportunities gained and birdies or better gained under “easy” conditions. He’s also 28th in bogey avoidance. 

Prior to the Open, Bradley gained at least 1.8 strokes putting in four consecutive starts, including at least four strokes putting in two of those starts. 

If Bradley’s ball-striking can prove slightly above average, he should cash a top 20 at a track that has rewarded strong putting. 

3M Open Prediction No. 3

Rico Hoey Top-40 Finish (+100)

The PGA Tour rookie has strung together a trio of strong finishes, including a T-6th at the Rocket Mortgage. 

While TPC Twin Cities offers a different challenge — mainly in terms of total water hazards — multiple players have experienced success at both these courses. 

Plus, Hoey’s at the peak of his powers right now in terms of tee-to-green play. Over his last 36 rounds, he’s ninth in SG: T2G, including eighth off the tee and 31st on approach. 

That quells my concern about Hoey finding the trouble areas at TPC Twin Cities. 

Although it’s a somewhat limited sample, Hoey is eighth in Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 yards and 35th in Par 5 Efficiency: 550-600 yards.

He also ranks 12th in opportunities gained on “easy” courses and 40th in birdies or better gained. 

Add in his strength from distance on approach — 28th and 44th in proximity: 175-200 yards and 200+ yards, respectively — and I’ll back him for a top-40 at 12th in my model.

3M Open Prediction No. 4

Kevin Yu Top-40 Finish (+110)

If the putter can just prove average, Yu has a chance to contend at the 3M Open. 

For added safety, I’ll take him to finish inside the top-40, a feat that should be manageable given he’s 10th in my mixed condition model. 

Yu rates out amongst the best in this field from tee-to-green. Over his last 36 rounds, he’s 13th in SG: T2G, including fourth in SG: APP, and ranks 23rd in good drives gained. 

He’s almost demonstrated a keen ability to make birdies both on easy courses and from long-range approach efforts. 

Dating back to last year, he’s 20th and 48th, respectively, in opportunities gained and birdies or better gained on “easy” courses. The worry? He’s 129th in bogey avoidance. 

However, what mitigates that concern is Yu’s success from long-range approaches, specifically from 175-200 yards and beyond 200 yards. 

In the former bucket, he’s T-21st on tour with a 37.5% birdie rate, 5.4% better than tour average. In the latter bucket, he’s T-4th on tour with a 20% birdie rate, 6.5% higher than tour average. 

Comparatively, he ranks no better than 145th in the three remaining 25-yard measures. 

If for one week the putter can align with the ball-striking, Yu can easily improve on his T-37th here last year.