PGA Tour Expert Picks: CJ Cup Byron Nelson

Below are my PGA Tour expert picks for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson based on golf odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook 

Two players – Jordan Spieth and Si Woo Kim (+1600) – are the co-favorites to win at TPC Craig Ranch. All told, there are 10 players at +3000 or lower. 

Notables include major winners Jason Day (+2000) and Adam Scott (+2500), along with Tom Kim and Stephan Jaeger (+2800). 

Below, bettors can find my predictions for the event. Odds are reflective at time of writing. 

Tom Hoge Top-20 Finish (+160)

Hoge sits first in my mixed condition model this week largely because of outstanding approach numbers. 

He’s first in the field in SG: APP and ranks 14th or better in both proximity categories: 175-200 yards and 200+ yards. 

Additionally, he’s fifth this season in birdies or better gained and second in Par 4 Efficiency on holes between 450 and 500 yards. 

Hoge has also demonstrated a keen ability to excel on easy courses. 

Since last season, Hoge ranks fifth in the field in SG: TOT on “easy” courses. Plus, in two starts at TPC Craig Ranch, he’s notched a top-20 finish once. 

Irrespective of venue this season, Hoge has secured seven top-20’s in his last 10 starts. 

In an even field, I’ll happily take +160 on him to make it eight from his last 11 events at a course that rewards strong iron play. 

Mark Hubbard Top-40 Finish (-105)

Hubbard’s fourth overall in my mixed condition model, so I rate this as a great price. 

Although he’s never produced a wildly impressive finish at TPC Craig Ranch, Hubbard has proved solid. In two appearances at this track, he’s notched a top-40 finish both times. 

Plus, Hubbard enters this event in outstanding form as he’s picked up four consecutive top-40 finishes. 

The underlying metrics are strong, too. Hubbard ranks eighth in SG: APP, fourth in birdies or better gained and fourth in Par 5 Efficiency. 

There are some elements that leave a touch to be desired – 93rd in Par 3 Efficiency: 200-225 yards, for example – but the rest is average enough to make him worth a play. 

For example, he’s 53rd in Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 yards and ranks 68th or better in both proximity categories, including 18th between 175 and 200 yards. 

One final bonus – Hubbard’s career putting metrics are best on bent greens, so expect him to rack up tons of birdies this week. 

Assuming he can avoid the errors, Hubbard is a top bet to finish inside the top-40. 

Adam Scott Over Sungjae Im (-110)

The worry here is that Im excels on easy courses, but doesn’t have great underlying metrics this year. 

Since last season, Im sits second in the field in SG: TOT on easy setups. This season, he’s 14th in the field under that designation. 

That’s about the only solid part of Im’s game. Although he’s 32nd in Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 yards and 29th in Par 3 Efficiency: 200-225 yards, everything else is bad. 

He’s 105th in the field in SG: APP, 97th in birdies or better gained and 96th in Par 5 Efficiency. The South Korean international also ranks 92nd or worse in both proximity categories. 

The best way to describe Scott this season: steady. 

He’s outside the top-50 in only two statistical measures this week, but he owns a great record at TPC Craig Ranch. 

Last year, the major winner finished in a tie for eighth in Texas a year after finishing T-32nd. 

That sees him rank eighth in SG: TOT at this track. He also sits 26th in SG: TOT on easy courses since last season. 

Seeing as there’s a 48-spot gap between these players in my mixed condition model, I’ll back Scott at -110.