- The American Express is January 16-19.
- Sam Burns makes sense for an outright winner pick.
- There is good value on Si Woo Kim.
The PGA Tour is back in the continental United States with The American Express from PGA West, January 16-19.
It is a unique week as PGA West has three courses — Pete Dye SC, Nicklaus TC, La Quinta CC. Players will play all three courses for the first three rounds, and then the final round will exclusively be at the Pete Dye Stadium Course.
The cut comes after the third round and rounds are much slower than usual as amateurs are paired with the players for the first three rounds.
Expect a lot of birdies to be made this week, as the winning score each of the last seven years has been 22-under or better.
I will be targeting players who perform well on easier courses, have solid Birdie or Better metrics, and perform well on par-5s.
The American Express Prediction
Justin Thomas and Sungjae Im are expected to win The American Express with a 7.69% implied probability, according to betting markets. Sam Burns is next at 6.67%.
Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.
The American Express Best Bets
Sam Burns Outright Winner (+1400)
Burns has a very good course history at PGA West and seems due for a win.
Besides a missed cut in 2021, Burns has finished inside the top 18 every time he’s played in this event. In fact, he’s finished T-6 twice (2024 and 2020). In addition, he is second in the field when it comes to Birdies or Better gained in the last 24 rounds and seventh on “easy” courses, according to Fantasy National.
The 28-year-old last won at the 2023 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, so it has almost been two full two years. While he didn’t win last year, he was very steady, logging eight top-10s and 12 top 25s in 21 PGA Tour events.
It feels like Burns will win again soon, so why not this week at PGA West?
Sungjae Im Top 10 Finish (+125)
Like Burns, Im has a great record at PGA West. In the last five years, he has the most Strokes Gained at this event – five more than the second-most player. He’s finished inside the top 25 all five years, including a T-10 in 2020. Overall, he’s finished inside the top 12 in four of his six appearances.
Im is coming off a solo third at The Sentry, so he’s also in good form.
Max Greyserman Top 20 Finish (+150)
Greyserman ranked extremely high in my Fantasy National model, including ranking No. 1 in Strokes Gained: Putting over the last 24 rounds. He also showed well in Birdies or Better Gained and Strokes Gained on “easy” courses. This will be his second appearance at this event, finishing T-56 a year ago.
If he had a better course history, perhaps this could have been a top-10 play or even an outright winner.
Si Woo Kim Top 20 Finish (+175)
This is good value after Kim missed the cut at the Sony Open in Hawaii last week. It is worth pointing out he finished eighth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. The issue was his putting, but in his last four starts at The American Express, he hasn’t lost strokes on the greens to the field.
Kim has a terrific record at PGA West, including a win in 2021 to go along with four other top-25 finishes.
*Odds as of Jan. 14
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