British Open 2023: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers

The fourth and final major of the year is here with the British Open, which takes place July 20-23 from Royal Liverpool.

This will be the third trip to the course since 1967, with the most recent being in 2014 when Rory McIlroy was the winner. McIlroy has the best odds to win this week at +700 following his win last week at the Genesis Scottish Open.

The links-style course will play a lot different from those in the United States, as there are plenty of strategically placed deep pot bunkers to help deter players from hitting driver on every hole. 

Weather will also play a key role in scoring. If there are high winds, par will be a good score. But, if there’s very little to no wind, it could turn into a birdie fest. The early Royal Liverpool weather forecast calls for rainy conditions and some wind.

In 2014, the course was a 7,312-yard par-72, but that will not be the case this year.

It has been lengthened by roughly 70 yards, the 10th hole has been converted to a long par-4 from a short par-5, and there’s a brand new 17th hole that will play roughly 140 yards into the wind. 

The course is now a par-71.

McIlroy wasn’t the only successful player in the 2014 field that is also teeing it up this week. Rickie Fowler finished runner-up, while Adam Scott, Shane Lowry, Dustin Johnson, Francesco Molinari, Keegan Bradley, and Chris Kirk each finished inside the top 20.

When selecting players this week, it will be worth paying extra close attention to those who have had success on links-style courses, as it is a much different style than the regular week-to-week schedule on the PGA Tour.

One note to consider, the winner of the last five Open Championships had a previous win earlier in the season.

Below are some players to target when golf betting, followed by my betting card for the week.

*All odds as of July 18.

British Open Predictions 

Rory McIlroy is predicted to win the British Open with a 12.5% implied probability — i.e., the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds — according to betting markets.

Scottie Scheffler is next at 11.76%, followed by Jon Rahm at 7.69%.

British Open Best Bets

Rory McIlroy +700 Odds to Win

McIlroy is one of the most bet-on players at BetMGM. As of Tuesday, he’s drawing the most tickets (8.5%) on the most handle (10.6%). It’s no surprise given his recent form, and that started well before his win last week at the Genesis Scottish Open.

He won the event the last time it was at Royal Liverpool (2014) and finished third last year. 

Scottie Scheffler +750 Odds to Win

Scheffler is the best all-around player this year on the PGA Tour, and this is a course that will reward all-around play. He’s now up to seven straight top-5 finishes and 19 straight top-12 finishes. 

The 28-year-old will be competing in his third Open Championship, with finishes of T-21 and T-8 in the past two.

British Open Sleepers

Adam Scott +8000 Odds to Win

Scott has finished inside the top 10 the last two times the event has been held at Royal Liverpool (2006 and 2014) and has three top-10 finishes this year on the PGA Tour.

The 43-year-old has the patience and experience to have success at an Open Championship.

Keegan Bradley +10000 Odds to Win

A winner on the PGA Tour last month, it’s a bit surprising to see Bradley in this range. While his game is better suited for courses in the United States, he did finish inside the top 20 in 2014 at Royal Liverpool.

If the wind doesn’t pick up and the event turns into a birdie-fest, don’t sleep on Bradley.

British Open Betting Card & Other Predictions

• Scottie Scheffler Outright Win +750
• Brooks Koepka Outright Win +2000
• Viktor Hovland Outright Win +2000
• Scottie Scheffler Top-5 Finish +175
• Rickie Fowler Top-20 Finish +105
• Xander Schauffele Top-20 Finish +105
• Jordan Spieth Top-20 Finish +140
• Max Homa Top-20 Finish +190

For this week, my betting card was a little shorter than a typical major, given the unpredictability of the weather and links golf. 

Scheffler is my favorite player of the week, as he’s played too well this year to not win a major. I did go heavy on top-20 players for players who have solid plus-value.

Here’s the top 10 of my Fantasy National model:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Jon Rahm
3. Rory McIlroy
4. Patrick Cantlay
5. Hideki Matsuyama
6. Jordan Spieth
7. Russell Henley
8. Tommy Fleetwood
9. Rickie Fowler
10. Tony Finau