Butterfield Bermuda Championship 2023: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers

The 2022-23 PGA Tour season is coming to an end, with just two events remaining.

This week, the Tour heads to Port Royal Golf Course in Southampton, Bermuda, for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship on Nov. 6-9.

It is not a PGA Tour signature event, but many solid players are in the field looking to up their status for the 2024 season. Players in the top 125 of the FedEx Cup standings are fully exempt for 2024.

Port Royal Golf Course is a Robert Trent Jones-designed public course and has hosted the tournament each year since 2020. The tournament debuted in 2019.

At 6,828 yards, it is the shortest par-71 the PGA Tour plays all year and is the second shortest overall, behind only TPC River Highlands. It is worth noting weather has played a major factor at this event in the past, with rain and wind impacting play virtually every year. This tends to level the playing field.

I will be targeting players who have had success at short courses in the past. 

Adam Scott (+1600) has the best odds to win this week, followed by Brendon Todd (+1800). Todd won the inaugural event in 2019.

*All odds as of Nov. 7.

Below are some players to target, followed by my PGA Tour betting card for the week:

Butterfield Bermuda Championship Predictions 

Adam Scott is expected to win the Butterfield Bermuda Championship with a 5.88% implied probability — i.e., the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds — according to betting markets.

Brendon Todd and Akshay Bhatia are next at 5.26%.

Butterfield Bermuda Championship Best Bets

Brendon Todd +1800 Odds to Win

Todd is one of the straightest hitters on the PGA Tour, so most of his success has come at short courses, where distance is not much of a factor. In his last start, which came at the Fortinet Championship, he finished in sixth. 

Akshay Bhatia +1800 Odds to Win

Bhatia has had some of his best performances as a professional on ocean courses, and Port Royal Golf Course fits the bill. He has played quite a bit this fall and is coming off his best finish of the fall series with a T-10 at the World Wide Technologies Championship.

Butterfield Bermuda Championship Sleepers

Mark Hubbard +3300 Odds to Win

Hubbard checks a lot of the boxes when it comes to metrics needed to have success this week, especially Strokes Gained: Approach and Good Drives Gained. The 34-year-old has had an up-and-down fall and needs a good week to potentially get into the first two signature events of 2024.

Troy Merritt +6600 Odds to Win

Merritt needs a strong close to the season to be fully exempt for the 2024 season. He enters the week 133rd in the FedEx Cup standings. The 38-year-old has the game to play well this week and has made five consecutive cuts.

Butterfield Bermuda Championship Betting Card & Other Predictions

• Adam Scott Outright Win +1600
• Alex Norén Top-10 Finish +200
• Ben Griffin Top-20 Finish +100

I am keeping my card small this week and relying heavily on my Fantasy National model.

Scott is just too good of a player against this field not to take at this price, and he performs well in the key metrics.

Norén checks the boxes as well, while Griffin nearly won this event a year ago but shot a 1-over 72 in the final round.

Here’s the top 10 players in my Fantasy National model:

1. Brendon Todd
2. Mark Hubbard
3. Alex Norén 
4. Adam Scott
5. Alex Smalley
6. Kelly Kraft
7. Doug Ghim
8. Troy Merritt
9. Brandon Wu
10. Luke List