Charles Schwab Challenge 2025: Predictions, Best Bets

A week after the PGA Championship, the PGA Tour will head to Texas again for the Charles Schwab Challenge from Colonial Country Club.

While not a PGA Tour signature event and the week after a major, a few stars are in the field, headlined by world No. 1 and Texas native Scottie Scheffler.

Scheffler enters the week with the best odds to win at +225.

Colonial Country Club is an “old school” tree-lined course that has hosted PGA Tour events for decades. At 7,200 yards, it is one of the shorter courses on the PGA Tour.

Distance won’t play much of a factor this week, as it is about positioning off the tee and playing good iron shots into the greens. One note on the winner is that in each of the last five years, the winner has entered with good form on the greens. 

I will be focusing on a number of metrics this week, including Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-green, Par 4 Scoring: 350-450 yards, Good Drives Gained, Prox: 100-200 yards, Strokes Gained: Putting and Doubles Avoided.

*Odds as of May 20

Charles Schwab Challenge Prediction

Scottie Scheffler is predicted to win the Charles Schwab Challenge with a 30.77% implied probability, according to betting markets. Daniel Berger and Tommy Fleetwood are next at 4.35%.

Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.

Charles Schwab Challenge Best Bets

Jordan Spieth Outright Winner (+2500)

While Spieth missed the cut at the PGA Championship last week, I actually prefer players this week who weren’t in contention a week ago, as they could still be dealing with mental fatigue, given it was a major.

Spieth has been playing some solid golf of late. Prior to the PGA Championship, he had finished inside the top 20 in four of his last five events, including a solo fourth at The CJ Cup Byron Nelson, which was also played in his home state of Texas.

Specific to this event, Spieth has a solid course history at Colonial Country Club, gaining the second-most strokes here in the last five years. Overall, he has six top-10 finishes here, including a win in 2016.

Lastly, Spieth checks the box of entering in good form on the greens. He’s gained strokes against the field in six of his last seven events.

Spieth hasn’t won since the 2022 RBC Heritage but is trending in the right direction and playing in his home state at a course he’s very familiar with.

J.T. Poston Top-20 Finish (+150)

Poston enters playing great golf of late, headlined by a T-5 at the PGA Championship a week ago. He’s also finished 23rd or better in four straight starts.

Specific to Colonial, he’s logged three top-20 finishes, including a T-10 last year. Coming in with plenty of momentum, plus money for a top-20 finish, seems like great value.

Brian Harman Top-20 Finish (+188)

Harman will return to Texas with some good vibes after winning the Valero Texas Open back in April.

He also has a solid record at Colonial, as he has six top-25 finishes overall, with his best being a T-7 in 2014. 

Coming off a week where some players may be fatigued following a major, Harman played all four rounds at Quail Hollow, but was never in the mix, finishing T-60.