Charles Schwab Challenge Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

As a bettor, I’ve often been reticent to play the “without” markets, in which odds are shortened, but a favorite (or multiple favorites) is eliminated from the field.

Admittedly, this isn’t usually a smart decision.

No, it’s a matter of stubborn pride more than some dissertation toward return on investment. If I select a player for an outright victory, I want him to beat everyone, not “everyone besides the guy we all really thought would win anyway.”

If there’s ever a time to reverse this thought process, this is the week.

In case you hadn’t heard, Scottie Scheffler is really good at golf and proved it once again this past weekend, winning the PGA Championship for his third career major.

Some might take a week off and bask in the afterglow, but Scheffler is going to play yet another hometown event – and it should lead to a case of déjà vu.

Just three weeks ago, he competed in a less-than-elite field at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and won by eight strokes. That was after failing to win his first eight tourneys of the season. Now he heads back to Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge at venerable Colonial CC, where he begins the week at an insane-yet-maybe-still-too-long price of +225.

The last time Scheffler won a major championship, he teed it up the next week and won that one, too, like the whole fortnight was just some extension into an eight-round tournament and he didn’t want to relinquish the lead.

That was at last year’s Masters and RBC Heritage, which don’t really correlate with each other, but do correlate to the current scenario. Think of it like one of those SAT analogy questions: Augusta National is to Quail Hollow as Harbour Town is to Colonial.

All of which probably sounds like I’m about to back Scheffler at a short number to go back-to-back again – and even as I’m writing these words, I’m having a tough time talking myself out of it – but despite his three straight top-three finishes at this one, recent history suggests eschewing the favorites. Defending champion Davis Riley was 300/1 before his victory, and five of the last six winners were 50/1 or longer, with the lone outlier being Sam Burns at 30/1 three years ago.

With that in mind, I’ll take a shot on multiple players in the mid-tier range this week, but I will *absolutely* suggest playing any (or all) of these players in the “Without Scheffler” market, so we can avoid the prohibitive fave.

Charles Schwab Challenge Outright Winner Picks

Conservative: Eric Cole (+9000)

Let’s start with Cole, who’s been playing some nice golf lately. The obvious drawback is that he’s 0-for-2 in trying to make the cut at Colonial, but he has made the cut in seven straight, with results ranging from fifth to 41st, the latter being his finishing placement at the PGA Championship last week. His irons and putter have largely been above field average in every one of those events, which is a nice combo to target at one of the PGA Tour’s quintessential “old-style” courses, which is often just another way of saying that it’s short and tight.

I often like targeting players after a major who showed some form, but didn’t have to exert the mental and physical energy of being in the heat of contention for four straight days. Cole fits that profile and should be ready to win for the first time at this level very soon. 

Aggressive: Tom Hoge (+12500)

Not all missed cuts are created equally and Hoge’s MC at Quail Hollow shouldn’t necessarily be written off as poor play. He got off to a brutal start, carding seven bogeys in his first 15 holes, but played his final 21 in 4-under, failing to reach the weekend by a single stroke. His iron play is usually strong, but it’s been even better over the past two months, especially during a couple of top-fives at The Players and Valero Texas Open. Perhaps even more impressive is that his putter, often a weak spot, has heated up during that time, as well.

On a course he knows, where he’s made the cut in six of nine starts and was T-17 last year, Hoge has some nice equity in this market at his opening price, though again, I’d recommend playing him in the “Without Scheffler” market.

Charles Schwab Challenge Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Daniel Berger (+400)

That’s right – I’m going right back to the well with this selection, as I’ve been on Berger as much as any player this season. It was a little jarring to see him as second on the board this week, above the likes of Hideki Matsuyama and Tommy Fleetwood, but that just speaks to how well he’s been playing.

Last week marked his worst result since January, as he previously owned a streak of nine top-30s with a pair of top-threes mixed in, but he was mostly undone by his short game and putting, as his tee-to-green performance was solid, as usual, landing at about a stroke better than field average per round with both his driver and irons. Heading back to the site of his third of four career wins in 2020, when he defeated a star-studded field here, Berger makes sense as an outright play, but I still have a little more faith in his high-end floor. 

Aggressive: Andrew Putnam (+2000)

It’s a little surprising that Putnam hasn’t won on the PGA Tour since his lone victory at the 2018 Barracuda Championship and perhaps even more surprising that he failed to qualify for last week’s PGA Championship, but he’s a solid player who should excel on shorter courses.

The book on Putnam is that he’s among the shorter hitters at this level, ranking 178th in driving distance, but also among the straightest, at seventh in driving accuracy. That’ll play well this week, as will his ranks of 33rd approaching the green, 17th around the green and 45th in putting. Those are near-elite numbers, when all put together, for a guy who’s played less-than-elite golf. Again, he often struggles to hang with the big boys on 7,500-yard courses, but this one should suit him better, as he owns one top-10 here and a pair of top-30s in his last three tries. 

Charles Schwab Challenge Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Aaron Rai (+275)

He’s been criticized for being too, let’s say, methodical on the course, but there’s also something aspirational about how Rai approaches his job, from his range sessions to his pre-shot routine. This isn’t to suggest that others don’t take the gig as seriously as him – they undoubtedly do – but it’s impossible to not admire his workmanlike attitude, which likely stems from his blue-blood upbringing.

(He’s told this story many times: The reason why he continues to use iron covers as a professional is a paean to his father, who saved money to buy him irons as a child, then meticulously protected them with covers.) In any case, I love playing Rai on a thinker’s course, where a bomb-and-gouge strategy won’t work. He’s 3-for-3 making the cut here, with a best finish of T-12 two years ago, but I think he’ll top that this week. 

Aggressive: Lucas Glover (+600)

I suspect Harris English will be a popular play here – and for good reason, coming off his T-2 result at the PGA Championship. I certainly don’t mind that, but I don’t think English is twice as likely to contend as Glover, so I’ll give the nod to the latter at twice the price. Perhaps the best golfer currently hosting a SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio show (yes, that’s sarcasm), he’s another short-but-accurate type of guy that I like targeting this week. The iron play has been terrific lately and he does have two top-10s in his last six starts, though each of those came with above-average putting performances, so he’ll need the flatstick to heat up this week.

Charles Schwab Challenge Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Jacob Bridgeman (+300)

If you haven’t been paying attention, you’ll be surprised to learn that Bridgeman has five top-15 results in his last 10 starts, part of a group that includes Alex Smalley and Ryan Gerard (also viable finishing position plays this week) among the most underrated players on the PGA Tour, at least from those general masses outside the betting community. Unlike many players we often target who are ball-strikers seeking a spike week on the greens, Bridgeman is a tremendous putter who needs to play just above average tee-to-green to give us a good chance here.

Aggressive: Harry Hall (+240)

Last year, Hall finished his season by gaining strokes with the putter in 16 of his final 17 starts. The only one he didn’t? This one, where he lost 2.54 strokes per round on the greens. That’s a massive red flag, but I figure if he signed up to play here again, then he must want another shot at some of these putts. He’s coming off a pair of top-20 finishes, so all he needs to do is putt about four strokes better per round than he did last year and we should be alright. No big deal, right?

Charles Schwab Challenge Top-40 Picks

Conservative: Takumi Kanaya (market not yet available)

Look, I know some of the “experts” are going to suggest you play Scheffler for a top-40 this week, then blow up your social media timeline when it hits, but that’s not how we do things around here. I want to offer some top-40 investments which have a little juice to ‘em, and I’ll start with Kanaya, a former No. 1-ranked amateur who was T-5 when the PGA Tour was in the DFW area just a few weeks ago. I’m not sure he’s ever going to fulfill his potential as a superstar – he would’ve been better suited for a bygone era when everyone wasn’t hitting the ball 330 yards – but I do think he’s coming into his own a bit at this level and Colonial should be one of the courses that has him licking his chops.

Aggressive: Brian Campbell (market not yet available)

Not gonna lie: I wouldn’t have been surprised if I went the rest of the year without typing Campbell’s name after his shocking Mexico Open victory, but he’s actually been impressive on a floor level lately, finishing top-40 in three of his last five starts, including the Masters. Those five starts each featured iron play which was well above average and his serious lack of distance off the tee should be thoroughly negated this week.

Charles Schwab Challenge First-Round Leader Picks

Conservative: Scottie Scheffler (+900)

Look, if you want to take your entire bankroll for the week and place it on a very cautious wager of Scheffler for a top-10, or even top-five, I really can’t find much fault with that. If you want to play him as a single-bullet outright, I have a feeling you’ll have a four-round sweat, at the very least. It makes sense to have a Scottie investment here, so I’ll advise it in the FRL market, where we’re getting a bigger number than his outright and there’s some rationale behind it, as he raced out to an opening lead at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson just three weeks ago.

Perhaps that’s where the real money lies, in a wire-to-wire play, but even though he did it that week, the price on this play just doesn’t jibe with the actual probability. In two of his last three starts at Colonial, Scheffler has opened with 66 or 67, and last year he posted two rounds of 65 or better. We know he can go low here, we know he’s the best player in the field by a wide margin. Of all the markets available for Scheffler, I’ll take my chances in this one. 

Aggressive: Sami Valimaki (+12500)

Imagine Keith Mitchell playing a PGA Tour event and someone not offering him up for FRL honors? I’m sure I’ll regret this, but Thursday Scottie can’t take all the FRLs. Instead, I’ll pivot to Valimaki, who’s been very good on Thursdays himself, posting eight sub-70 scores in 13 individual opening rounds while ranking sixth in Round 1 scoring average.