Farmers Insurance Open 2025: Predictions, Best Bets

Stephan Jaeger catches a ball from his caddie on the 13th hole during the final round of the Sony Open golf event, Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu.
(AP Photo/Matt York)
  • The Farmers Insurance Open is Jan. 22-25 (Wednesday-Sunday).
  • Stephan Jaeger makes sense for an outright pick after a strong showing last year.
  • Will Zalatoris and Michael Thorbjornsen are good value plays.

It is another unique week on the PGA Tour as the Farmers Insurance Open from Torrey Pines will be Wednesday-Saturday to avoid going head-to-head with the AFC/NFC title games on Sunday.

Two courses will be used โ€“ the North and the South. Players will play both on Wednesday and Thursday before just the South for the final two rounds.

It isnโ€™t a PGA Tour signature event, and a few players have withdrawn, including Xander Schuaffele and Collin Morikawa. It is not as strong of a field as in past years.

As of Tuesday morning, Ludvig Aberg has the best odds to win at +900.

When it comes to selecting players who have a chance to play well, I will be favoring the following metrics: Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Around-the-green, driving distance, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-green,ย  bogey avoidance, Prox: 200+ yards and par-5 scoring.

Farmers Insurance Prediction

Ludvig Aberg is expected to win the Farmers Insurance Open with a 10% implied probability, according to betting markets. Hideki Matsuyama is next at 8.33%.

Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.

Farmers Insurance Open Best Bets

Stephan Jaeger Outright Winner (+5000)

This is a redemption week for Jaeger as he was the 36 and 54-hole leader a year ago before finishing two shots behind winner Matthieu Pavon.ย 

Jaeger enters the week off a T-3 in his last event โ€“ the Sony Open in Hawaii. Overall, he has two top-5 finishes in his last three PGA Tour starts.ย 

Given the lack of true star power in the field, Jaeger certainly is worth a look this week.ย 

Will Zalatoris Top-20 Finish (+110)

Zalatoris didnโ€™t make the best course history at Torrey Pines and the Farmers Insurance Open list, but he has three career top-15 finishes at this event, including losing in a playoff in 2022.ย 

The 28-year-old seems fully healthy following back surgery in 2023 (a T-26 at The Sentry and T-12 at The American Express) and is primed to regain his status as one of the better players on the PGA Tour.ย 

Getting him at plus-money for a top-20 finish likely wonโ€™t be a regular thing moving forward, especially against a relatively weak field, so this is a good week to take advantage of the value.

Michael Thorbjornsen Top-20 Finish (+320)

This is a similar play to Zalatoris as I am a big believer in Thorbjornsenโ€™s game and itโ€™s hard to imagine getting a price like this on him much this year against a field like this.

The Stanford productโ€™s length off the tee will help him a great deal at Torrey Pines and heโ€™s coming off a solid week at The American Express where he finished T-34. And, if not for a 3-over round on Sunday, it would have been even better.

*Odds as of Jan. 21.

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About the Author

Ryan Hannable

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Ryan Hannable is a Content Managing Editor on the Web Content Team for BetMGM. Previously, he was a New England Patriots beat writer for WEEI in Boston. He also has published a golf book, โ€œThe Ultimate Book of Golf Trivia: 600 Questions and Answers.โ€

Ryan Hannable is a Content Managing Editor on the Web Content Team for BetMGM. Previously, he was a New England Patriots beat writer for WEEI in Boston. He also has published a golf book, โ€œThe Ultimate Book of Golf Trivia: 600 Questions and Answers.โ€