History Shows Not To Bet on Big Names at Valspar Championship

The PGA Tour doesn’t have much time to catch its breath, as following a Monday finish at the Players Championship, many players will make the four-hour trip to the opposite coast of Florida for the Valspar Championship.

The tournament is at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club in Palm Harbor, Florida. Golf odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook were not released until early Tuesday, so there’s not a lot of time to go super in-depth when it comes to research.

Because of this, it makes sense to look back at past editions of the tournament when examining golf odds to win this week.

Last year, Sam Burns won for the first time on the PGA Tour. He entered the week with golf odds of +7000, 26th among players in the field. Paul Casey won the two editions before that (2018 and 2019) with odds of +2300 and +2500, respectively. Neither time were his pre-tournament odds in the top five. 

And then, in 2017, Adam Hadwin was victorious. It was his first PGA Tour victory, and he entered the week with +8000 odds, 32nd in the field.

History shows the winner of the Valspar Championship typically is not one of the best players in the field or one that has short odds. 

Based on this, who should bettors stay away from this week? Here are the players with the best odds to win, as of Tuesday.

1. Justin Thomas +1000
2. Collin Morikawa +1100
3. Viktor Hovland +1100
4. Dustin Johnson +1400
5. Xander Schauffele +1800

Some longer shots to potentially keep an eye on include Jason Kokrak (+3500), Gary Woodland (+6600), and Adam Svensson (+15000). Burns has +2000 odds as he looks to defend his title.

Burns tied the tournament record with a winning score of 17-under par a year ago. In most years, the winner ends up around 10-under par, give or take a few shots. 

Innisbrook is a demanding course with some tight fairways and several doglegs. This places value on players who strike their irons well and take advantage of the par-5s.