WM Phoenix Open Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

Welcome to the biggest week in sports, as seemingly the entire world will convene at a singular sporting event to celebrate in the most excessive and gluttonous ways possible.

The Super Bowl? Nah, bruh. I’m talking about the WM Phoenix Open.

Alright, so maybe that’s written in jest, but the annual festivities at TPC Scottsdale will once again serve as golf’s largest party – even if the winner likely won’t be decided until you’ve already started your Super Bowl party.

At a tournament that counts more than a half-million spectators throughout the week, I’ve long believed that it takes a certain type of player to succeed here. One who embraces the spotlight instead of enduring it, one who occasionally asks for the crowd to get louder instead of quieting down, one who enjoys strutting in front of the galleries instead of soft-pedaling.

Like most theories, this one is hardly foolproof.

Sure, there are plenty of brawny alphas who have thrived in front of the massive throngs. Phil Mickelson won three times when he was still playing the PGA Tour. Brooks Koepka won twice. Scottie Scheffler has since claimed a pair of titles, and other recent winners include Gary Woodland and Rickie Fowler, each of whom fit the profile.

That’s enough of a sample size to prove the theory has legs, but again, it’s not without cause for concern. Hideki Matsuyama is a noted introvert who happens to also be a two-time winner here. Webb Simpson and defending champion Nick Taylor each own a ton of internal confidence, but neither quite fits the narrative at play.

That said, I’ll be trying to target players who do fit – in some shape or form – starting with a couple of outright selections who have more than a “Woo” bit in common, as they each try to prevent Scheffler from being the most obvious selection of the season.

WM Phoenix Open Outright Picks

Conservative: Si Woo Kim (+5500)

The day before the opening session of last year’s Presidents Cup, I interviewed Si Woo on SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio about the opportunity to play in front of a “home” crowd for the International team in Canada. As part of his response, he offered that he’s naturally shy and perhaps a bit skittish when playing in front of such boisterous crowds. Within a few days, he and teammate Tom Kim had become the lightning rods of their roster, playing to those galleries and soaking up the atmosphere. 

Though his final individual record was just 2-2-0, I theorized at the time that this could mark a big step in the breakthrough that many of us have expected out of Si Woo for years. A winner of the Wyndham Championship before he could legally drink and The Players at just 21, Kim has often been considered amongst the game’s elite ball-strikers, but it’s his transformation from high-ceiling/low-floor opportunist to consistent force which has been so impressive in recent years. As evidence, he closed out last year with three top-20s in his final four starts and is fresh off a 12th-place result at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, where he posted bookend rounds of 67. He’s similarly trending at TPC Scottsdale.

After failing to post anything better than 50th in his first half-dozen starts, he’s gone T-26, T-23, T-12 the past three years, perhaps suggesting that he’s less figured out the course and more figured out how to play in front of all the people partying around him. Just as I believe that last fall’s Presidents Cup will go a long way toward helping that comfort level, this feels like it could be a culmination of a lot of patterns for Si Woo – and maybe the start of some even bigger results this year.

Aggressive: Min Woo Lee (+6600)

Much like Si Woo, Min Woo enjoyed a sneaky-good finish last week, posting totals of 68-69 on the weekend to finish in a share of 17th place. Unlike Si Woo, though, the Aussie is no stranger to playing to the crowds. The truth is, there are few players who eat up the spotlight as much as The Chef, who seems to relish the idea of being famous and popular – an idea which isn’t exactly common amongst his peers. He finished a middling T-71 in his WM debut last year, so I’m buying on spec just a bit here, but I get the sense that if every event on the PGA Tour was like this one, Min Woo’s success rate would increase more than most.

Last week, he ranked eighth in SG: Approach, which should give him some momentum. I also like the fact that very much like the first four winners of this season – and like Si Woo listed above – he feels like a bit of a bargain at this price, despite still seeking his first career PGA Tour title.

WM Phoenix Open Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Scottie Scheffler (-190)

Look, I get it: Backing anybody – even the world’s best player – at shorter than even money for a top-five in a full field is madness, so I’m going to offer a caveat to this play: Add it to your fave Super Bowl wager as a parlay boost. One week after finishing T-9 in his season debut after hand surgery and a lengthy absence, Scheffler returns to a tournament where he owns two wins and a third-place finish in the last three years.

Against a field devoid of most of his fellow elite-level players, he’s more of a sure thing than usual here. I especially like him in One and Done pools – especially those which disallow selections of the defending champion, which eliminates Scheffler from a lot of big-time events. 

Whether you like the Chiefs or the Eagles, Travis Kelce for an anytime touchdown or Saquon Barkley’s rushing prop, adding a Scottie top-five onto any bet will help increase the odds. (Oh, and not that you asked the golf guy for his advice, but I wanted to get my favorite longshot Super Bowl prop in writing, just in case it hits: Chiefs’ returner Nikko Remigio has looked ready to bust a long one for a few weeks now. The Chiefs defense/special teams is +3500  to record the game’s first TD and +650 for an anytime TD, which are big enough prices to get me very interested in watching the special teams this Sunday.)

Aggressive: Daniel Berger (+2000)

In the outright market, Berger opened at 100/1, which was nearly enough to get me to list him for that specific play instead of a top-five. I still don’t mind a sprinkle there, but I really like a title contention this week for Berger, who owns three career top-10s (and an 11th) in nine starts at this event. 

Beset by injuries for a couple of years, it’s evident that he’s nearing the form which made him a four-time PGA Tour winner and Presidents Cup team member. He finished runner-up in his final start of last year and, despite a pair of MCs where he putted poorly, also has a T-21 at The AmEx this year.

WM Phoenix Open Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Sam Stevens (+500)

Golf is a fickle game, and golf betting might be an even fickler pursuit. If professional golfers are forever riding a volatile virtual roller coaster, then it’s incumbent upon us to resolve exactly when the ups will become downs and the downs will become ups. For the past few weeks, Stevens has been riding this coaster toward an impending peak, and I believe it’ll keep climbing this week.

Following his runner-up finish at the Farmers Insurance Open, he finished T-17 at Pebble in what was another strong ball-striking week. I’ll strike again while the irons remain hot, hoping to hit on a guy whose T-28 result here last year should portend even greater success this time around.

Aggressive: Frankie Capan III (+1200)

As the tournament’s own Twitter handle noted upon announcing Capan as a sponsor exemption, the rookie was once the Arizona state high school champion, so he should have plenty of good vibes returning home this week. Personally, I don’t bet much on the Korn Ferry Tour, but Capan was the guy on the developmental tour on whom I bet the most last year, as he seemed ready to pop on a weekly basis.

Already in his initial season, he’s 3-for-3 making the cut, with a best finish of T-12 at The AmEx. In a field that only includes a few of the game’s top players, I love the idea of playing a few hungry young guys and Capan is right near the top of that list for me here.

WM Phoenix Open Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Lee Hodges (+300)

I’ve always believed it’s near-impossible as a sports fan to argue those overrated/underrated lists, because, well… who’s rating ‘em in the first place? I could tell you that I believe Hodges is amongst the more underrated players on the PGA Tour, but you might rate him in your own personal top-10, which is admittedly too high.

The point is, the greater golf calculus in general probably doesn’t give Hodges the due he deserves, as he’s now finished top-35 in six straight starts, dating back to October. Last week’s T-33 coulda/shoulda/woulda been better, but an opening 66 devolved into scores of 69-71-73 in the final three rounds. I like him to reverse that trend this week.

Aggressive: Chan Kim (+550)

It probably hasn’t been the start to the season that this 34-year-old PGA Tour sophomore had envisioned. He finished T-53 at the Sony Open with just one of four scores on the wrong side of 70; an opening 75 kept him from reaching the right side of the cut line at The AmEx; and scores of 76 and 77 prevented him from breaking inside the top-40 at the Farmers.

Even so, his iron play has been progressing nicely for a while now. The biggest bugaboo here is the flat stick, but here’s hoping the Arizona State product feels a bit more comfortable on some familiar putting surfaces this week – at least enough to cash top-20 tickets.

WM Phoenix Open Top-40 Picks

Conservative: Andrew Novak (-110)

My usual conservative top-40 plays are more aggressive than this one, but I wanted to highlight Novak in this preview, who like Stevens is a guy in whom I’m trying to invest while the roller coaster is still heading skyward. He was solo third at Torrey and T-13 at Pebble; now he comes to a place where he was T-8 last year. That’s a lot of stars aligning at the same time, and while you can make a case that Novak for a top-40 is more cautious than Scheffler for a top-five, the same theory holds: If you don’t want to play this one alone, it makes for a nice parlay boost, as well.

Aggressive: Rico Hoey (+160)

I’m willing to go down in flames on the Hoey bandwagon, but only if you’ll let me wither away on it for a few more months. An exceptional second half of last season had me believing that Hoey was ready to start peppering leaderboards this year, but results of T-58, T-59 and MC in three starts are beginning to have me thinking that his previous ascendancy was less about figuring things out and more about needing some combination of momentum and immediacy to play his best golf. Even so, I’ll take another chance in the top-40 market this week before begrudgingly backing down for a little while if it doesn’t work.

WM Phoenix Open First-Round Leader Picks

Conservative: Sahith Theegala (+4500)

Three years ago, it appeared Theegala’s maiden voyage to the WM might be one that ended in a trophy presentation, but alas, some late-Sunday foibles led to a T-3 result. After a T-39 the following year, he returned with another top-five last year. I’ve often written over the past couple of years that while I love Theegala’s game, he’s difficult to predict because he doesn’t give us too many clues as to when and where he’ll play his best golf. 

This event serves as a massive exception, and while I do really like the idea of backing his 45/1 outright number, I’ll offer him here for a FRL play, considering four of his 12 rounds here have been 66 or better so far.

Aggressive: Webb Simpson (+10000)

Once one of the brighter up-and-coming stars in the game, the light-hitting Simpson has largely become an afterthought in today’s bomb-and-gouge exhibitions, but on the proper course, he can still play some very good golf. That was evident in his only previous start of the season, a T-16 result at the Sony Open.

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Simpson only show up at those events where he’s fared well in the past, which answers any question as to why he’s here this week, as his 2020 victory has been buoyed by a runner-up and five career top-10s at this one. I’m not sure I want to back him for a full four-round investment, but on a (comparatively) quiet Thursday at TPC Scottsdale, he can still go as low as anyone.