John Deere Classic Bets: 5 Matchup Plays, Including Denny McCarthy

Golf is a fickle pursuit, a notion understood by anyone who’s declared they’ve figured their swing, only to blow the next shot out of bounds.

Golf betting can be just as fickle.

While I’ve often written about sticking with the players you’ve backed, even if they don’t cash, there are certainly times when it makes sense to flip your allegiances.

My favorite matchups bets available at BetMGM for this week’s John Deere Classic – listed below in priority order – start with a pair of players I backed just a week ago for outrights at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, with varying degrees of success.

Let’s get right to ‘em

John Deere Classic Bets: 5 Matchup Plays

Denny McCarthy (+100) over Davis Thompson

Look, I love Thompson’s game – not just in the short term, but over the long term, as I think he can (and will) be a very good PGA Tour player for a very long time. A share of runner-up honors last week should only embolden that stance, though it’s shortened his odds too much on a course which might not suit his game perfectly. McCarthy, meanwhile, has already proven he loves TPC Deere Run, with back-to-back sixth-place finishes over the past two years. He’s playing some decent golf lately and, most importantly, should use his prowess as one of the world’s best rock-rollers to make plenty of birdies, as it should take something in the neighborhood of two dozen to seriously contend this week.

Seamus Power (+110) over Keith Mitchell

Along with Thompson, I also recommended Mitchell for an outright selection last week, but a missed cut has me a lot more pessimistic for this one. The ball-striking remains solid, but the short game has been letting him down, plus a debut T-7 at this event in 2018 has been followed by an MC and T-42 in his last two appearances here. Power, on the other hand, has never missed the weekend here, finishing top-25 in four of his five starts. I believe their ceilings are comparable, but I’d prefer to take a chance on Power’s floor, especially at plus-money.

Beau Hossler (+100) over Kevin Yu

Much like Corey Conners or Tom Hoge, Yu is a ball-striker supreme who needs only putt about field-average to contend – and yet, he hasn’t contended very frequently, which tells us a lot about his putting. If we could combine his talents with those of Hossler, we’d have one mighty fine PGA Tour pro, as Hossler usually has the wedge and putter dialed in. It’s not often that I’d side with the short-game artist over the flusher, but I’m banking on Hossler hitting it well enough to give himself some chances on the greens.

Aaron Rai (-145) over Jordan Spieth

As a general rule of thumb, I don’t often like playing big favorites in H2H matchups. Most of these are fairly evenly matched and there are usually enough even- or plus-money wagers to leave these alone. All of which should tell you how much I like this one, despite this price. Rai has been riding a heater, gaining strokes with his driver and irons in his last half-dozen starts, each of them a top-40, including last week’s share of second place. Spieth has been, well, the exact opposite of that, failing to produce a top-25 result in his last nine starts, while his vaunted putting skills have eluded him. Can he turn it around? Sure, but I’d rather side with the proven recent commodity and that’s easily Rai.

Mark Hubbard (-135) over Jhonattan Vegas

My favorite matchup plays are those which offer two chances to cash – one on Friday and one on Sunday. Hubbard has done plenty of damage on the former day this year, going 18-for-18 in making the cut so far. That’s a massive contrast to Vegas, who’s only 6-for-12 to this point. There’s a chance this one is over after two rounds and if it’s not, there’s a chance of still winning it after four rounds, making Hubbard a smart play, even as the fave here.