The PGA Tour is back to its normal stroke play format this week with the Mexico Open, which will be played at Vidanta Vallarta in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.
While the format is back to normal, it’s another unusual week for golf betting.
Since this is an inaugural event, there’s no course history to go off of when selecting players, and the majority of the top players in the world are taking the week off.
Only three of the top-25 players in the world rankings will be teeing it up – Jon Rahm (No. 2), Abraham Ancer (No. 20) and Tony Finau (No. 25). In addition, the field includes just 14 of the top 100 players.
This is impacting the golf odds to win, as Rahm is a massive favorite. As of Tuesday, he’s +450 to win after opening at +500.
And despite such high odds, Rahm is still a huge betting favorite this week at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
The 27-year-old has the highest handle at 22.1%, which is well ahead of Gary Woodland, who has the second-highest handle at 8.1%.
With no course history to turn to, the best betting strategy this week appears to be just going with the best player in the field.
In 10 PGA Tour events this season, Rahm has seven top-25 finishes to go along with four top 10s, but for his standards, it’s been a pretty underwhelming year. He lost his No. 1 world ranking to Scottie Scheffler, and aside from a T-9 finish at the WGC World Match Play, his best finish since January is a T-10 back in February at the WM Phoenix Open.
With a below-average field and a new course, this could be what Rahm needs to get back in the winner’s circle for the first time since last year’s U.S. Open.
Current Handle & Tickets
- Jon Rahm – 22.1%
- Gary Woodland – 8.1%
- Abraham Ancer – 7.1%
- Tony Finau – 5.6%
- Kevin Na – 4.3%
- Gary Woodland – 6.2%
- Abraham Ancer – 6.1%
- Jon Rahm – 5.7%
- Tony Finau – 4.8%
- Kevin Na and Cameron Champ – 4.7%
Ancer has seen his odds change quite a bit this week. After opening at +2000, he’s now +1600. With that being said, he may face some extra pressure playing in front of a ton of fans as one of a few Mexican players in the field.
In terms of value plays, Aaron Wise (+2200) and Sebastian Munoz (+3300) could be worth considering. Wise has 2.8% of the tickets and 4% of the handle, while Munoz has 4.1% of the tickets and 3.7% of the handle.