PGA Championship Picks 2023: 1 of These 4 Players Will Win

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Scottie Scheffler hits a tee shot on the second hole during the second round of the Byron Nelson golf tournament in McKinney, Texas, Friday, May 12, 2023.
(AP Photo/LM Otero)
Ryan Hannable @RyanHannable May 17, 2023, 9:03 AM
  • The PGA Championship is May 18-21 from Oak Hill.
  • Recent winners have had past success at recent majors.
  • Winners are generally ranked high in the Official World Golf Rankings.

It’s officially PGA Championship week and one of the best of the year for golf betting

There are plenty of storylines to follow, including Rory McIlroy looking to win a major for the first time since 2014, Jordan Spieth trying to complete the career Grand Slam, and many more.

Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm currently have the best PGA Championship odds at +750.

Picking an outright winner is extremely hard, but there are some trends to know for this week at Oak Hill.

PGA Championship Betting Strategy

Since this is a major championship, naturally, one of the best players in the game is going to win. While there have been a few outliers in recent years at this event, it is best to select the top players and stay away from long shots.

Like most events, current form does come into play, so it’s important to look at how a player is performing at the moment.

Unlike Augusta National for the Masters and other courses for regular PGA Tour events, Oak Hill doesn’t host major tournaments often. The last time it hosted a major was the 2013 PGA Championship, so there isn’t much course history.

But, it is expected to be a very tough test, with the winning score likely failing to reach double digits.

Picking a PGA Championship Winner

9 of Last 11 Winners Were Ranking 21st or Better in Official World Golf Rankings

  1. Jon Rahm
  2. Scottie Scheffler
  3. Rory McIlroy
  4. Patrick Cantlay
  5. Xander Schauffele
  6. Max Homa
  7. Matt Fitzpatrick
  8. Cameron Smith
  9. Will Zalatoris (Not playing due to injury)
  10. Jordan Spieth
  11. Viktor Hovland
  12. Tony Finau
  13. Justin Thomas
  14. Sam Burns
  15. Cameron Young
  16. Collin Morikawa
  17. Tyrrell Hatton
  18. Sungjae Im
  19. Tom Kim
  20. Jason Day
  21. Kurt Kitayama

Based on recent history, these are the 20 players with a chance to win going into the week based on the Official World Golf Ranking.

8 of Last 10 Champions Had a Top-20 Finish in Previous Start

  1. Rahm
  2. Scheffler
  3. Schauffele
  4. Homa
  5. Smith
  6. Thomas
  7. Hatton
  8. Im
  9. Day

Eliminated: McIlroy, Cantlay, Fitzpatrick, Spieth, Hovland, Finau, Burns, Young, Morikawa, Kim, Kitayama 

Recent history has shown recent form is important going into the event. The golfers above did not have a top-20 finish in their most recent start.

7 of Last 10 Winners Had Top-10 Finish in One of the Previous 2 Major Championships

  1. Rahm
  2. Scheffler
  3. Schauffele
  4. Smith

Eliminated: Homa, Thomas, Hatton, Im, Day

Based on these trends, the winner will either be Rahm, Scheffler, Schauffele or Smith. Keep this and the other trends used in mind when making PGA Championship picks.

PGA Tour Odds at BetMGM

BetMGM is the premier online sportsbook for updated PGA Tour odds each season.

Whether you’re betting on designated tournaments, match play events, or majors, there’s something for everyone. And with live golf betting, the action doesn’t stop at the book when the action starts on the course. You can view live odds from the first round through the final round.

Sign in to your account today — or, if you don’t have an account, sign up today with a sportsbook welcome offer — to start betting. And always check your new account for updated sportsbook promos and bonuses.

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About the Author

Ryan Hannable

Read More @RyanHannable

Ryan Hannable is a Content Managing Editor on the Web Content Team for BetMGM. Previously, he was a New England Patriots beat writer for WEEI in Boston. He also has published a golf book, “The Ultimate Book of Golf Trivia: 600 Questions and Answers.”

Ryan Hannable is a Content Managing Editor on the Web Content Team for BetMGM. Previously, he was a New England Patriots beat writer for WEEI in Boston. He also has published a golf book, “The Ultimate Book of Golf Trivia: 600 Questions and Answers.”