Predictions for Every PGA Tour Event This Season

The new PGA Tour season is upon us and while some bettors might be taking things week-to-week as they come, others are already starting to look at the big picture and formulate some strategies for the year.

Whether you’re seeking some notes to clip and save while pondering bets throughout the season or starting a list for One and Done (OAD) pools, I’ve offered up some potential selections for all 39 tournaments on the schedule, broken down into three categories.

Old Reliable (OR): A player who traditionally fares well at that given event.

Course Horse (CH): A player whose game should match up with the host venue.

Wild Card (WC): A player who I particularly like at a specific event, whether because of an underlying narrative, a home-field advantage or just as a “hunchy” play. 

Let’s get right to ‘em, from The Sentry to the Tour Championship.

The Sentry (Jan. 2-5)

Defending champion: Chris Kirk
OR: Justin Thomas
CH: Collin Morikawa
WC: Davis Thompson

Years ago, it was easier to separate those on a business trip from those on a working vacation, but with so much money and so many points available, it’s tough to imagine anyone bringing dusty clubs and a rusty swing to Maui. 

Sony Open (Jan. 9-12)

Defending champion: Grayson Murray
OR: Russell Henley
CH: Corey Conners
WC: Si Woo Kim

It might not be a cheat code to prognosticating the year’s second event, but the overall numbers show that those who played at Kapalua and already have a competitive tournament under their belts in the Aloha State usually have the upper hand over their peers. 

The American Express (Jan. 16-19)

Defending champion: Nick Dunlap
OR: Adam Hadwin
CH: J.T. Poston
WC: Rico Hoey

Past results often matter for this one, maybe not so much because the courses only fit certain players, but because it takes some patience to go super-low in the desert during lengthy pro-am rounds with amateur partners. 

Farmers Insurance Open (Jan. 22-25)

Defending champion: Matthieu Pavon
OR: Tony Finau
CH: Sahith Theegala
WC: Jake Knapp

I have a suspicion Xander Schauffele is soon going to win this hometown event that means so much to him, but I can’t quit Finau, whom I’ve picked just about every year and has six top-10s and nine top-25s in 10 starts, though no elusive victory. 

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Jan. 30-Feb. 2)

Defending champion: Wyndham Clark
OR: Jordan Spieth
CH: Tom Hoge
WC: Maverick McNealy

Once again a signature event, the weather at Pebble can always play a factor, as it did during last year’s shortened edition, but watching the best of the best compete in the potential conditions at one of golf’s most scenic locales never gets old. 

WM Phoenix Open (Feb. 6-9)

Defending champion: Nick Taylor
OR: Scottie Scheffler
CH: Hideki Matsuyama
WC: Beau Hossler

For those taking this info to OAD pools where the defending champion isn’t eligible, there aren’t many better options for Scheffler because he won just about everywhere else he played last year. 

The Genesis Invitational (Feb. 13-16)

Defending champion: Hideki Matsuyama
OR: Max Homa
CH: Patrick Cantlay
WC: Tiger Woods

Alright, so I’ll admit that listing Tiger as a Wild Card selection is more than a little cheeky and clearly pie-in-the-sky thinking, but there are sponsor exemptions for signature events and, well, he did look pretty good at the PNC Championship. Maybe as tournament host, he can allow Charlie to play this one as a two-man scramble with him.

Mexico Open (Feb. 20-23)

Defending champion: Jake Knapp
OR: Patrick Rodgers
CH: Erik van Rooyen
|WC: Justin Lower

Jon Rahm and Tony Finau won the first two editions of this as a PGA Tour event, but if the big-name stars are going to skip – and most will – this feels like a great spot to take a shot on either a journeyman or up-and-comer nabbing a first career win. 

Cognizant Classic (Feb. 27-March 2)

Defending champion: Austin Eckroat
OR: Shane Lowry
CH: Billy Horschel

WC: Eric Cole

Just as a poker player might change strategies mid-game, this is the perfect checkpoint for golf bettors to look in different directions, as those who fared well on the West Coast aren’t necessarily the same players who are going to play well on the East Coast. 

Arnold Palmer Invitational (March 6-9)

Defending champion: Scottie Scheffler
OR: Rory McIlroy
CH: Wyndham Clark
WC: Matt Fitzpatrick

Arnie’s place is never easy – and it’s seemingly gotten tougher in recent years. Go with those who embrace the difficult conditions. Past winners of the U.S. Open isn’t a bad place to start. 

Puerto Rico Open (March 6-9)

Defending champion: Brice Garnett
OR: Joe Highsmith
CH: Henrik Norlander
WC: Alejandro Tosti

The public will largely ignore most alternate-field events, but these offer great opportunities to chase some lesser-known talents who are ready to win at the highest level. 

The Players Championship (March 13-16)

Defending champion: Scottie Scheffler
OR: Xander Schauffele
CH: Ludvig Aberg
WC: Sungjae Im

For the same reason it’s entertaining, the PGA Tour’s flagship event is unpredictable – in my mind, the toughest of the year to handicap. We’ve seen veterans and rookies, long hitters and short-knockers, superstars and journeymen all win this one over the years. The one constant is that great iron play usually rises to the top.

Valspar Championship (March 20-23)

Defending champion: Peter Malnati
OR: Sam Burns
CH: Gary Woodland
WC: Billy Horschel

Burns owns two wins and two other top-12 finishes in a half-dozen career starts at this tournament.

Texas Children’s Houston Open (March 27-30)

Defending champion: Stephan Jaeger
OR: Taylor Moore
CH: Thomas Detry
WC: Beau Hossler

After bouncing around on the schedule for a few years, the annual Houston stop has found a place in the spring for a second consecutive year. 

Valero Texas Open (April 3-6)

Defending champion: Akshay Bhatia
OR: Matt Kuchar
CH: Denny McCarthy
WC: Sam Stevens

Find your best wind players for this San Antonio-based tourney, where it’s rarely calm – all of which usually creates more drama at the end, especially if the contenders include a few players chasing after that golden ticket into the Masters. 

Masters Tournament (April 10-13)

Defending champion: Scottie Scheffler
OR: Jon Rahm
CH: Ludvig Aberg
WC: Collin Morikawa

Early in the year, I’m often asked, “Who do you like for the Masters?” My usual reply is to answer this question with more questions: “Who’s in good form? What’s the weather like?” All of that said, expect the leaderboard in Augusta to be filled with the usual suspects.

RBC Heritage (April 17-20)

Defending champion: Scottie Scheffler
OR: Patrick Cantlay
CH: Matt Fitzpatrick
WC: Tom Kim

Look, I get it: Money talks. If RBC is going to pony up the cash, then the PGA Tour is going to make their tournament on Hilton Head Island a signature event. While it’s nice to see the game’s best on a short, strategic track, this was always a nice relaxing respite from the Augusta pressure-cooker and a place where the underdog small-ballers could contend with the big boys.

Corales Puntacana Championship (April 17-20)

Defending champion: Billy Horschel
OR: Justin Lower
CH: Michael Kim
WC: Frankie Capan III

Another alternate-field event gives us another opportunity to take a chance on some new talent. Keep an eye on Capan, who was very good on the KFT last year. 

Zurich Classic of New Orleans (April 24-27)

Defending champion: Rory McIlroy/Shane Lowry
OR: Xander Schauffele
CH: Nick Taylor
WC: Aaron Rai

For this two-man event, we’ve gotta see the teams before we can do the handicapping, but there’s an opportunity in OADs to select the inferior partner and get his superstar buddy to come along for the ride. 

The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 1-4)

Defending champion: Taylor Pendrith
OR: K.H. Lee
CH: Austin Eckroat
WC: Max McGreevy

When in doubt, go with Lee, who once won this tournament in back-to-back years and has never missed the cut in five appearances. 

Truist Championship (May 8-11)

Defending champion: Rory McIlroy
OR: Wyndham Clark
CH: Cameron Young
WC: Russell Henley

I listed the three names above simply for some uniformity in this article, but the truth is, nothing really applies here. The erstwhile Wells Fargo Championship is taking a one-year absence from Quail Hollow (more on that next) and will be played at the brilliant Philadelphia Cricket Club instead, though it remains a signature event once again. 

Myrtle Beach Classic (May 8-11)

Defending champion: Chris Gotterup
OR: Greyson Sigg
CH: Sam Ryder
WC: Harry Higgs

Back on the schedule as an alternate-field event for the second straight year after Gotterup claimed the first one by a half-dozen strokes. 

PGA Championship (May 15-18)

Defending champion: Xander Schauffele
OR: Rory McIlroy
CH: Bryson DeChambeau
WC: Keegan Bradley

Most PGA Championship venues have us digging through the archives to discern which type of player might be a suitable course fit, but Quail Hollow is a known commodity – especially so close to its usual spot on the calendar. 

Charles Schwab Challenge (May 22-25)

Defending champion: Davis Riley
OR: Jordan Spieth
CH: Lucas Glover
WC: Daniel Berger

While so many events and courses on the schedule have changed over the years, this one remains blissfully intact, with sublime ball-striking serving as the only path to success at Colonial. 

The Memorial Tournament (May 29-June 1)

Defending champion: Scottie Scheffler
OR: Patrick Cantlay
CH: Viktor Hovland
WC: Sahith Theegala

If Jack Nicklaus doesn’t like his spot on the schedule, guess what? It’ll change. Back to its usual place two weeks before the U.S. Open, it’ll once again take an elite blend of power and finesse to win here. 

RBC Canadian Open (June 5-8)

Defending champion: Robert MacIntyre
OR: Nick Taylor
CH: Corey Conners|
WC: Mackenzie Hughes

I mean, if we’re not betting a Canadian to replicate Taylor’s incredible feat from 2023, then what are we even doing here? Sure, there’s added pressure on the homeboys, but seeing one of their own win this national championship should embolden each of them with a little more confidence. 

U.S. Open (June 12-15)

Defending champion: Bryson DeChambeau
OR: Scottie Scheffler
CH: Xander Schauffele
WC: Brooks Koepka

The year’s third major championship annually only yields stud champions, but there’s even less of a chance that we’ll see a surprise winner at Oakmont, hence my listing of the three superstars for this one. 

Travelers Championship (June 19-22)

Defending champion: Scottie Scheffler
OR: Keegan Bradley
CH: Xander Schauffele
WC: Aaron Rai

As one of the shorter venues on the PGA Tour, TPC River Highlands used to be a place where the shorter guys could thrive, but the likes of Scheffler, Bradley and Schauffele – the last three winners here – have proven that the big boys are pretty good with their wedges, too. 

Rocket Mortgage Classic (June 26-29)

Defending champion: Cam Davis
OR: Min Woo Lee
CH: Taylor Pendrith
WC: Lee Hodges

There are few host courses where driver can be a weapon more than Detroit GC, as the list of winners includes Davis (twice), Tony Finau and Bryson DeChambeau, each of whom can fly it long and straight. 

John Deere Classic (July 3-6)

Defending champion: Davis Thompson
OR: Patrick Rodgers
CH: Christiaan Bezuidenhout
WC: Michael Thorbjornsen

Much like the Travelers, this was one an event where the likes of Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson could thrive, but the new generation – like Thompson last year – can overpower TPC Deere Run. 

Genesis Scottish Open (July 10-13)

Defending champion: Robert MacIntyre
OR: Tommy Fleetwood
CH: Xander Schauffele
WC: Tom McKibbin

Take everything you’ve learned about professional golf over the first six months of the year and throw it out the window because the impending fortnight of links golf is a completely different animal from what we will have watched until now. 

ISCO Championship (July 10-13)

Defending champion: Harry Hall
OR: Seamus Power
CH: Rico Hoey
WC: Lanto Griffin

Don’t panic at the ISCO! This one was previous the Barbasol Championship, so there’s plenty of data/results available. 

The Open Championship (July 17-20)

Defending champion: Xander Schauffele
OR: Rory McIlroy
CH: Tommy Fleetwood
WC: Tyrrell Hatton

While it’s tough to get away from the European links expert narrative – as evidenced by my three selections above – it’s worth noting that three of the last four winners are American and five in the past decade, as opposed to just three European winners. 

Barracuda Championship (July 17-20)

Defending champion: Nick Dunlap
OR: Erik van Rooyen
CH: Patrick Fishburn
WC: Chan Kim

Modified Stableford scoring rewards aggressive play, so check out the players who make the most eagles/birdies. 

3M Open (July 24-27)

Defending champion: Jhonattan Vegas
OR: Kurt Kitayama
CH: Patrick Fishburn
WC: Doug Ghim

This one requires a nice combination of power and precision, as length is an obvious advantage, but water hazards – and impending double-bogeys – can lurk everywhere. 

Wyndham Championship (July 31-Aug. 3)

Defending champion: Aaron Rai
OR: J.T. Poston
CH: Max Greyserman
WC: Jacob Bridgeman

It doesn’t always work out this way, but this one is often claimed by a player who’s contended a few times during the summer and knows he only has one last chance before the big boys return for the playoffs – as was the case with Rai last year. 

FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug. 7-10)

Defending champion: Hideki Matsuyama
OR: Patrick Cantlay
CH: Lucas Glover
WC: Nick Dunlap

Name the top ball-strikers’ courses on the PGA Tour and TPC Southwind might not get a mention, but the winners’ list correlates to strong iron play in Memphis.

BMW Championship (Aug. 14-17)

Defending champion: Keegan Bradley
OR: Patrick Cantlay
CH: Scottie Scheffler
WC: Akshay Bhatia

The last (and only other) time that the BMW was contested at Caves Valley, Patrick Cantlay defeated Bryson DeChambeau in a playoff after they both posted four-day totals of 27-under 261. Expect things to be tougher this time around, if only because it can’t play any easier. 

Tour Championship (Aug. 21-24)

Defending champion: Scottie Scheffler
OR: Rory McIlroy
CH: Collin Morikawa
WC: Sungjae Im

If you’re betting/OADing this one using the staggered scoring start, you’ll want to save a stud who’s in good FedEx Cup position entering the finale since starting 10 shots back is essentially dead-man walking for anybody’s title hopes.