Presidents Cup Betting: 3 Reasons Internationals Could Beat United States

Since the turn of the century, there’s been a singular narrative surrounding every edition of the Presidents Cup, one which reeks of equal measures hopefulness and desperation.

You know, this could be the year that the underdog International team knocks off the heavily favorited United States side…

Spoiler alert: It hasn’t been. None of ‘em.

Entering this week, the U.S. has won nine consecutive iterations of this biennial team competition and has remained undefeated for the last 11.

No matter how hard we’ve collectively rooted for this to become a rivalry of anything but the hammer-and-nail variety, it hasn’t happened. The guys in red, white and blue continually play the role of Harlem Globetrotters to a squad of nice guys who repeatedly finish last, golf’s own version of the Washington Generals.

It’s all led to many within the game suggesting that the event’s greater good would be best served with the Internationals winning a few, which would ostensibly forge a greater dissension amongst the participants and a stronger interest level from the masses.

Just don’t offer that notion to U.S. captain Jim Furyk, who was asked about this theory by a reporter recently and replied, “Really? You’re American. I do actually take offense at that. I don’t hate you but it’s a pretty shi–y thing to say. … It’s not like I’m killing you right now, but f— you. Go f— yourself. You can quote me on that one.”

The reality is, there might be more pressure on Furyk to continue the current winning streak than there is on his International counterpart Mike Weir to break it, considering no American captain wants to forever be identified as the guy who finally lost one.

As always, though, there’s a possibility that the aforementioned pre-event narrative could come to fruition. There’s a chance this could be the outlier, or the time the tables turned, or the one that got away.

I get it. At this point, it’s a bit like the Boy Who Cried Wolf.

Keep advocating that the Internationals could win, and you’re bound to be ignored when they actually do.

I’m certainly not proposing that you throw all your money on the home team at Royal Montreal – my Presidents Cup betting preview can be found here – but I will state that it’s hardly going to be a slam-dunk, no-doubt-about-it victory for the side that always wins.

Here are three reasons the Internationals could reverse the trend: 

Greater Depth

For years, the explanation of U.S. dominance in this event has boiled down to the fact that while the International team’s top-of-the-lineup players can hang with their best, the back-end of the roster is wildly outmatched.

In 1994, the inaugural year, the lowest-ranked U.S. player on the points list was a young Phil Mickelson; the International side included the likes of Tsukasa Watanabe, Fulton Allem and Bradley Hughes. In 2005, when the U.S. started the current winning streak, 11 of the 12 team members ranked inside the top-25 in the world; only half of the International squad did. Even just two years ago at Quail Hollow, the U.S. team owned an average OWGR ranking of 11.5; the International average ranking was 48.9.

This time around, that differential has narrowed from 37.4 per player to just 22. (Average rank of U.S. players is 12.4; average of Internationals is 34.4.) While it’s easy to surmise that Weir’s team has no equal for Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele at the top of the order, it can be theorized that there isn’t too much discrepancy between, say, Russell Henley, Keegan Bradley and Max Homa as there is on the other side with Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Si Woo Kim and Mackenzie Hughes.

In this competition, which features a total of two more available points than the Ryder Cup, with 10 players on each team playing each of the first two sessions, depth is a necessity. It can be argued that the International side has more depth this week than perhaps ever before.

More Cohesion

The simplest explanation for the International team’s repeated failures in this event stems from geography. Against a roster of players who all speak the same language and largely matured while competing against each other, the squad comprised of those from everywhere in the world except for the U.S. and Europe has essentially been forced to bond, despite representing such a dichotomy of nations.

There’s a reason that might not be the case this time.

Back in 2015, seven separate countries were repped by players on the International side. In 2017, it was eight. In 2019, nine. And two years ago, that number was seven.

This week, the dozen team members hail from only five different countries – Australia, South Korea, Canada, South Africa and Japan, the last two of which only have one player on the team.

In theory, this not only gives Weir more options for natural pairings amongst countrymen but requires less of a manufactured connection between teammates. 

Ohh, Canada

No offense to the good people of Australia, South Korea and South Africa, each of which has played host to this competition in the past, but there’s a belief that the golf-crazed nation of Canada might show out for the home side with greater passion than ever before.

This is an event which desperately needs a buzz in the air to help the underdogs claim a little momentum right off the bat and massive galleries should assist in doing just that.

Just as important – well, perhaps way more important – is the fact that the home captain is trusted with setting up the golf course.

This is a much bigger deal than it used to be, for the sheer reason that the ascension of advanced analytics now plays a major role. Weir has undoubtedly looked at the strengths of his squad — plus any perceived weaknesses of the opponent – and come to some setup conclusions based on the numbers.

Royal Montreal is a par-70 that will play 7,279 yards on the scorecard this week, with early word suggesting that hitting fairways and greens will be at a premium.

Some might counter that this plays just as well into the wheelhouse of the American players and while that isn’t wrong, just recall the course setup for the Ryder Cup at Le Golf National six years ago, when the big-hitting U.S. side couldn’t keep it in play against the more precise European players. That might be tough for Weir to duplicate, but it should certainly serve as a blueprint for success.